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#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Bitcoin Market Trend Deep Analysis
(1) Short-term Trend (1 day - 1 week): Breakout followed by consolidation and buildup - On January 14, a strong breakout occurred, with a single-day increase of 5.18%, soaring from the $91,000 range to the $96,000 threshold, hitting a nearly two-month high, then pulling back to stabilize around $95,000.
- Technical (1-hour K-line): Represents a “healthy correction after strong upward attack,” with trading volume peaking over $360 million during the surge, and significantly decreasing during the pullback, indicating that the bearish selling pressure has not been fully released; short-term support is at $94,800 (former resistance turned support), and resistance above is at $96,300 (intraday high).
- Performance in the past 7 days: Up 3.40% in total, showing a “consolidating upward trend,” with prices gradually rising from $89,700, and increased market participation, but not yet breaking through the upper boundary of the previous consolidation range.
(2) Mid-term Trend (1 month): Macro + Regulatory Double-Driven Rebound
- Starting from around $87,000 in early January, the rebound experienced a “surge - correction - re-breakthrough” trajectory, reaching $94,700 on January 5 before pulling back to $89,300 (50-day moving average support), then rebounding with positive news.
- Technical (daily chart): Price has stabilized above the 200-day moving average (long-term support), but remains below the 100-day and 50-day moving averages, forming a “long-term strong, medium-term oscillation” pattern; the $92,000-$94,000 range is a key support zone that was previously a resistance.
- On-chain signals: Long-term holders’ profit-taking behavior has significantly decreased, with daily realized profits dropping from a Q4 peak of $1 billion to $184 million, reducing selling pressure; derivatives market has completed a 45% reset of open interest, alleviating the “structural price peg” effect.
(3) Long-term Trend (1 year): Structural Rebuilding after High-level Correction
After reaching a historical peak of $126,210 in October 2025, a deep correction began, with a maximum decline of 30%, and gradually stabilized and rebounded in early 2026, with a total decline of 5.54% over the year.
- Core features: Market structure has undergone profound changes, with institutional funds flowing back; after the end-of-year outflows of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, a net inflow of $117 million was recorded, with institutions shifting from cautious observation to marginal buyers.
- Long-term support: $80,600 (weekly main trend line + psychological threshold), and $89,200 (key support at 50-day moving average), both of which have shown strong buying power in historical trends.
Core Driving Factors Analysis
(1) Macroeconomics: Easing expectations boost risk assets
In December, the US core CPI YoY was 2.6%, below the market expectation of 2.7%, reinforcing the consensus that interest rate cuts will begin around mid-2026. As a highly elastic risk asset, Bitcoin has been among the first to benefit from liquidity easing.
- Geopolitical risk support: Escalation of tensions in Iran has increased safe-haven demand, coupled with Venezuela settling 80% of oil exports in USDT, highlighting Bitcoin’s “non-sovereign asset” attribute.
(2) Regulatory Dynamics: Certainty expectations boost market confidence
- The US “CLARITY Act” will undergo key review on January 15, clarifying token classification (non-securities/commodities), SEC and CFTC responsibilities, with DeFi exemptions and friendly stablecoin rules. If passed, it will significantly reduce industry uncertainty in the long term.
- Global regulatory landscape: Under the EU MiCA framework, tax transparency legislation took effect on January 1; China continues to strengthen virtual currency regulation, creating a divergence pattern of “compliance in Europe and America, cautiousness in emerging markets.”
(1) Short-term Trend (1 day - 1 week): Breakout followed by consolidation and buildup - On January 14, a strong breakout occurred, with a single-day increase of 5.18%, soaring from the $91,000 range to the $96,000 threshold, hitting a nearly two-month high, then pulling back to stabilize around $95,000.
- Technical (1-hour K-line): Represents a “healthy correction after strong upward attack,” with trading volume peaking over $360 million during the surge, and significantly decreasing during the pullback, indicating that the bearish selling pressure has not been fully released; short-term support is at $94,800 (former resistance turned support), and resistance above is at $96,300 (intraday high).
- Performance in the past 7 days: Up 3.40% in total, showing a “consolidating upward trend,” with prices gradually rising from $89,700, and increased market participation, but not yet breaking through the upper boundary of the previous consolidation range.
(2) Mid-term Trend (1 month): Macro + Regulatory Double-Driven Rebound
- Starting from around $87,000 in early January, the rebound experienced a “surge - correction - re-breakthrough” trajectory, reaching $94,700 on January 5 before pulling back to $89,300 (50-day moving average support), then rebounding with positive news.
- Technical (daily chart): Price has stabilized above the 200-day moving average (long-term support), but remains below the 100-day and 50-day moving averages, forming a “long-term strong, medium-term oscillation” pattern; the $92,000-$94,000 range is a key support zone that was previously a resistance.
- On-chain signals: Long-term holders’ profit-taking behavior has significantly decreased, with daily realized profits dropping from a Q4 peak of $1 billion to $184 million, reducing selling pressure; derivatives market has completed a 45% reset of open interest, alleviating the “structural price peg” effect.
(3) Long-term Trend (1 year): Structural Rebuilding after High-level Correction
After reaching a historical peak of $126,210 in October 2025, a deep correction began, with a maximum decline of 30%, and gradually stabilized and rebounded in early 2026, with a total decline of 5.54% over the year.
- Core features: Market structure has undergone profound changes, with institutional funds flowing back; after the end-of-year outflows of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, a net inflow of $117 million was recorded, with institutions shifting from cautious observation to marginal buyers.
- Long-term support: $80,600 (weekly main trend line + psychological threshold), and $89,200 (key support at 50-day moving average), both of which have shown strong buying power in historical trends.
Core Driving Factors Analysis
(1) Macroeconomics: Easing expectations boost risk assets
In December, the US core CPI YoY was 2.6%, below the market expectation of 2.7%, reinforcing the consensus that interest rate cuts will begin around mid-2026. As a highly elastic risk asset, Bitcoin has been among the first to benefit from liquidity easing.
- Geopolitical risk support: Escalation of tensions in Iran has increased safe-haven demand, coupled with Venezuela settling 80% of oil exports in USDT, highlighting Bitcoin’s “non-sovereign asset” attribute.
(2) Regulatory Dynamics: Certainty expectations boost market confidence
- The US “CLARITY Act” will undergo key review on January 15, clarifying token classification (non-securities/commodities), SEC and CFTC responsibilities, with DeFi exemptions and friendly stablecoin rules. If passed, it will significantly reduce industry uncertainty in the long term.
- Global regulatory landscape: Under the EU MiCA framework, tax transparency legislation took effect on January 1; China continues to strengthen virtual currency regulation, creating a divergence pattern of “compliance in Europe and America, cautiousness in emerging markets.”
