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Recently, many friends have asked me what I think about the stock market.
Actually, if you raise your perspective a bit and look at the long-term charts of major global stock indices, the answer is not complicated — most indices are already operating in historically high regions, with candlesticks clearly visible.
The higher the position, the more risk tends to quietly accumulate.
Now, let's focus on the US stock market.
Whether it's the NASDAQ Index #IXIC 、标普500，还是AI绝对龙头 #NVDA, if you switch to a monthly chart, the technical structure is not very optimistic.
Many patterns have alrea
View OriginalActually, if you raise your perspective a bit and look at the long-term charts of major global stock indices, the answer is not complicated — most indices are already operating in historically high regions, with candlesticks clearly visible.
The higher the position, the more risk tends to quietly accumulate.
Now, let's focus on the US stock market.
Whether it's the NASDAQ Index #IXIC 、标普500，还是AI绝对龙头 #NVDA, if you switch to a monthly chart, the technical structure is not very optimistic.
Many patterns have alrea
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Will the US stock market major indices face a monthly level decision: a major adjustment or continue to maintain a strong upward trend?
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The market has changed so rapidly over the years—technology is evolving, assets are changing, narratives are shifting, from stocks to cryptocurrencies, from institutional entry to algorithmic trading, the gameplay is becoming more and more complex.
But you'll find that one thing has never changed: human nature.
In a bull market, people always believe "this time is different"; during downturns, they always feel the world is coming to an end. The Dow Theory discusses trends, which essentially reflect the cycle of collective sentiment; wave theory may seem complex, but at its core, it’s just
View OriginalBut you'll find that one thing has never changed: human nature.
In a bull market, people always believe "this time is different"; during downturns, they always feel the world is coming to an end. The Dow Theory discusses trends, which essentially reflect the cycle of collective sentiment; wave theory may seem complex, but at its core, it’s just
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Currently, global stock markets are all at high levels, appearing prosperous, but for seasoned investors, this is not a sign of ease~
When most indices are simultaneously in their historical high zones, it indicates that the trend has been running for a relatively long cycle, marginal buying is beginning to decline, and risks are quietly accumulating. The more synchronized the rise, the stronger the market's dependence on positive news. Once expectations loosen, volatility often amplifies exponentially.
From a cyclical perspective, high levels are never where risks appear, but rather where ris
View OriginalWhen most indices are simultaneously in their historical high zones, it indicates that the trend has been running for a relatively long cycle, marginal buying is beginning to decline, and risks are quietly accumulating. The more synchronized the rise, the stronger the market's dependence on positive news. Once expectations loosen, volatility often amplifies exponentially.
From a cyclical perspective, high levels are never where risks appear, but rather where ris
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Korean stock market circuit breaker~
What's going on? Or is it just because it went up too much~
View OriginalWhat's going on? Or is it just because it went up too much~
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The situation between Iran and the U.S. suddenly escalates, and the market's "risk radar" is instantly fully activated. The term "black swan" begins to appear more frequently~
From historical experience, geopolitical conflicts primarily impact sentiment rather than the trend itself. According to Dow Theory: news influences prices, but the trend determines the direction. In the short term, funds will quickly shift to safe-haven assets, volatility will rise, gold will strengthen, and risk assets will come under pressure—these are often the first reactions. #Bitcoin is also likely to be sold off
From historical experience, geopolitical conflicts primarily impact sentiment rather than the trend itself. According to Dow Theory: news influences prices, but the trend determines the direction. In the short term, funds will quickly shift to safe-haven assets, volatility will rise, gold will strengthen, and risk assets will come under pressure—these are often the first reactions. #Bitcoin is also likely to be sold off
BTC6,51%
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Look up three feet and you'll see the gods. This broken world, the gods can't stand to watch anymore~
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Another dictator has fallen, a bit vulnerable~
Trump continues to make history~
View OriginalTrump continues to make history~
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Things built over ten years can be wiped out in a single day~
The market is like this, and so is life~
Profits accumulated slowly in a bull market can be lost with just one out-of-control leverage~
Trends established over many years can be shattered in an instant by a wave of emotion~
Time is responsible for building, while risk only needs one trigger point~
This is also the cruelest yet most real aspect of trading—upward movement relies on patience, but destruction can happen in a瞬间~
True experts are not only good at attacking but also understand how to defend~
It's not just about studying ho
View OriginalThe market is like this, and so is life~
Profits accumulated slowly in a bull market can be lost with just one out-of-control leverage~
Trends established over many years can be shattered in an instant by a wave of emotion~
Time is responsible for building, while risk only needs one trigger point~
This is also the cruelest yet most real aspect of trading—upward movement relies on patience, but destruction can happen in a瞬间~
True experts are not only good at attacking but also understand how to defend~
It's not just about studying ho
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Look at #IXIC's trend, the US stock market in March and April also didn't have much good momentum~
#NVDA Nvidia's big drop after earnings also aligns with expectations~
View Original#NVDA Nvidia's big drop after earnings also aligns with expectations~
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Yesterday, #Circle's earnings report caused a 35% surge. It reminded me of an article from August last year, which I pulled out of the drafts folder today:
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Regarding the bottom of #Bitcoin, this has been a hot topic lately online~
In fact, many people started calculating the bottom range right after confirming the end of the bull market~
Unavoidably, since October last year, I have been continuously estimating the potential bottom range~
Its importance is self-evident~
Currently, there are some preliminary conclusions. I'll say a few words simply, not to compete for prediction accuracy~
If Bitcoin gives you a $40,000 buying opportunity and you can withstand a 3~4 layer floating loss, then you can gradually buy in and hold~
In fact, many people started calculating the bottom range right after confirming the end of the bull market~
Unavoidably, since October last year, I have been continuously estimating the potential bottom range~
Its importance is self-evident~
Currently, there are some preliminary conclusions. I'll say a few words simply, not to compete for prediction accuracy~
If Bitcoin gives you a $40,000 buying opportunity and you can withstand a 3~4 layer floating loss, then you can gradually buy in and hold~
BTC6,51%
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Gold surges, Bitcoin declines. When this kind of combination appears, the market's first reaction is often just two words: safe haven~
As funds start flowing into traditional safe-haven assets like gold, while risk assets come under pressure, it's usually not just a single technical factor at play but increasing macro uncertainties—geopolitical tensions, liquidity expectations, or sudden event risks—that can act as triggers~
Funds don't speak, but they vote with their prices~
From a market correlation perspective, gold represents "stability," while #Bitcoin is still regarded as a risk asset in
As funds start flowing into traditional safe-haven assets like gold, while risk assets come under pressure, it's usually not just a single technical factor at play but increasing macro uncertainties—geopolitical tensions, liquidity expectations, or sudden event risks—that can act as triggers~
Funds don't speak, but they vote with their prices~
From a market correlation perspective, gold represents "stability," while #Bitcoin is still regarded as a risk asset in
BTC6,51%
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Welcoming the God of Wealth!
May the new year bring Bitcoin a "main upward wave halo," helping everyone to prosper all the way. Breakthroughs should be made when needed, acceleration when appropriate. Don't continue with that sluggish oscillation pattern—let the trend be more straightforward and profits more satisfying.
Of course, the God of Wealth never favors impulsiveness, but discipline. Manage your positions well, keep the rhythm right, and stay emotionally stable. Only when the bull market arrives can you truly hold on.
New year, new cycle—may everyone's accounts stay in the green and th
May the new year bring Bitcoin a "main upward wave halo," helping everyone to prosper all the way. Breakthroughs should be made when needed, acceleration when appropriate. Don't continue with that sluggish oscillation pattern—let the trend be more straightforward and profits more satisfying.
Of course, the God of Wealth never favors impulsiveness, but discipline. Manage your positions well, keep the rhythm right, and stay emotionally stable. Only when the bull market arrives can you truly hold on.
New year, new cycle—may everyone's accounts stay in the green and th
BTC6,51%
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The New Year is over, and Bitcoin should shift from "holiday mode" back to "normal rhythm"~
During the holiday period, trading volume was light and volatility was subdued, more like a period of emotional dormancy; now liquidity is gradually returning, the order book is gaining strength, and every price move is more substantial than before~
Structurally, the consolidation phase often serves as a buildup for the next trend~
The necessary corrections are made, the cleansings are thorough, and the real market trend usually begins to unfold slowly after everyone wakes up from the holiday atmosphere
During the holiday period, trading volume was light and volatility was subdued, more like a period of emotional dormancy; now liquidity is gradually returning, the order book is gaining strength, and every price move is more substantial than before~
Structurally, the consolidation phase often serves as a buildup for the next trend~
The necessary corrections are made, the cleansings are thorough, and the real market trend usually begins to unfold slowly after everyone wakes up from the holiday atmosphere
BTC6,51%
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It's the New Year, time to boost morale~
Just a wild guess, but it also helps set a time frame for myself:
By 2030, #Bitcoin will be worth 700,000 to 1,000,000 USD~
By 2035, 3 million to 5 million USD~
It sounds like bragging, but if we extend the timeline and look at it in cycles rather than daily fluctuations, this range isn't a pipe dream~
The four-year halving cycle is essentially a long-term game of supply contraction combined with global monetary credit expansion~
As long as the scarcity logic isn't broken, prices will realize their value over time~
Of course, there will definitely be ma
Just a wild guess, but it also helps set a time frame for myself:
By 2030, #Bitcoin will be worth 700,000 to 1,000,000 USD~
By 2035, 3 million to 5 million USD~
It sounds like bragging, but if we extend the timeline and look at it in cycles rather than daily fluctuations, this range isn't a pipe dream~
The four-year halving cycle is essentially a long-term game of supply contraction combined with global monetary credit expansion~
As long as the scarcity logic isn't broken, prices will realize their value over time~
Of course, there will definitely be ma
BTC6,51%
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The New Year is coming soon. Do you think #Bitcoin will crash or rally?
According to previous years' patterns, funds tend to be cautious before the holiday, and trading volume often contracts, leading the market into a state of "pretending to be calm"~
But the market's favorite move is to suddenly create emotional volatility when everyone expects it to be quiet~
From a structural perspective, if the trend isn't clear, the market is more likely to move sideways rather than in a single direction before the holiday; the true direction usually becomes clearer only when liquidity recovers after the
According to previous years' patterns, funds tend to be cautious before the holiday, and trading volume often contracts, leading the market into a state of "pretending to be calm"~
But the market's favorite move is to suddenly create emotional volatility when everyone expects it to be quiet~
From a structural perspective, if the trend isn't clear, the market is more likely to move sideways rather than in a single direction before the holiday; the true direction usually becomes clearer only when liquidity recovers after the
BTC6,51%
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