AxelAdlerJr

$526M in BTC shorts were wiped out on April 17.
But the bigger signal came after the squeeze: Open Interest peaked at 319K BTC and then started falling.
That means leverage didn't reload. It flushed. It was a squeeze running out of fuel.
Full breakdown ☕️ ADLER AM#151👇

The BTC market got noticeably cleaner. ETF flows turned positive again. Sell pressure eased.
What exactly is keeping the market in limbo right now and what verdict Weekly Engine delivers this week - in the full breakdown below.
Weekly Engine #92 👇

🩸$526M in BTC shorts liquidated in 24 hours
Bitcoin rallied from $74K to $78K and the move had all the hallmarks of a classic short squeeze.
At 13:00 UTC alone, the market absorbed a single $357M short liquidation spike.
The takeaway: the rally was amplified not by fresh demand, but by the forced closure of bearish positions.
This matters because a short squeeze can accelerate price very rapidly - but on its own, it does not confirm sustainable spot demand.

LTH accumulated +3.06M BTC over the past 3 months.
But some older coins are now being sold at a loss.
This is not capitulation yet. But accumulation is no longer a clean signal of strength.
What is really happening inside the LTH cohort - in ☕️Adler AM #150 👇

98 days straight. Capital leaving Bitcoin.
Realized Cap down 3.23% since January.
Outflow slowing in April - reversal not confirmed.
What triggers a regime change - in today's brief 👇

Global Risk On/Off - a new block in Decision Terminal v1.6

Bitcoin structure just turned positive.
Bull-Bear Index flipped above zero. Bear zone: fully cleared.
But the internal picture still lags.
Price recovered. Network P/L sentiment is still underwater.
This is a recovery - not a new bull regime.
Morning Brief 148 👇

Version 1.6 with the upgraded RISK ON/OFF algorithm has been deployed to the test servers. Tomorrow we’ll release it to all users. Access to the Terminal is available through a subscription on my Substack.

Negative issuance-adjusted demand means the market has not absorbed new BTC fast enough over the past 30 days. Today’s move was driven by short liquidations rather than sustained spot demand.

$74К
That is the average entry price of US Bitcoin ETF holders. And BTC just touched it.
What happens here will shape the next move.
Morning Brief 147 👇

WTI crude oil futures surged 9.3% and rose above $104 per barrel, recovering last week's losses after President Donald Trump announced a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of weekend talks with Iran.

BTC just reset its leverage - without losing price.
OI dropped 7%. Funding flipped negative. Spot is still holding above $70K.
That is not a confirmed breakout.
But it is exactly the kind of setup that can trap late shorts fast.
Full breakdown ☕️ ADLER AM #146 👇

Bitcoin looks less fragile.
That does not mean the bottom is in.
Weekly Engine breaks down what all 7 layers are saying and why this still may be just a bear market pause, not a confirmed turn.
Weekly Engine #91 👇

Funding Rates🩸

One market stress signal just normalized. Another snapped back within 48 hours.
Exchange outflow peaked at -15,216 BTC in March and is now near zero. ETF flows crashed -29,539 BTC on Apr 7, then recovered to +1,835 BTC on a 7D basis by Apr 9.
Stabilization is here. Impulse is not.
☕️ Morning Brief 145 👇

Seller pressure eased. But the reversal still isn't confirmed.
Net Taker Volume 30DMA rebounded to +0.73 after touching zero. Liquidations Dominance 30DMA is sitting near multi-month lows at 9.4.
The structure looks cleaner. Whether that turns into a real shift is the key question.
Full breakdown ADLER AM #144👇

Now live 👇

Bitcoin bounced hard.
Futures are already signaling recovery.
Market structure still refuses to confirm it.
Morning Brief 143 👇