Ahao001

The “big pie” (i.e., BTC) is meeting expectations and has already entered the red pressure level. I’ve already opened a personal short position. There’s a relatively high probability that it will continue to range-bound over the weekend. The direction will likely become clear next Monday. The current situation looks very similar to the weekend altcoin scenarios that have happened multiple times before: after a series of coordinated pumps, retail traders are very easy to get carried away, and once they’re trapped, they’re more likely to keep holding—leading to trouble. Stay alert, and have prot

Big Pie intraday support is 73,500 and 72,000, with resistance at 76,000
This is just a rebound in a bear market—don’t get overly excited. The rise is only for a better fall. Continue adding some short positions at the upper resistance levels of 78,000-81,000. 80,000 is the 0.31 resistance level on the weekly logarithmic scale—an extremely strong resistance level.
The bulls will start calling for a bull return, and the FOMO atmosphere will spread. The big test is here! As always, manage your risk well—live to the end, and you’ll be the one laughing last!

On April 15th, Bitcoin at 72,000 still has upward momentum as it hasn't fallen below that level. There are too many bears; a rise of two or three thousand points can take out a lot of bearish liquidity. It will only start a smooth decline when bears dare not short anymore. This week and next week, the main players will continuously accumulate liquidity below through various means until they can support the next wave of decline. This is just a rebound in a bear market. The resistance zone above at 78,000-81,000 is a very good point to open a short position.

Rave Conspiracy Theory
Ordinary small traders wouldn't do something like this
There must be a big conspiracy behind it
Since they've started, it won't end so quickly
It reminds me of trb—up by a hundredfold
Then it breaks out of the circle to attract new retail investors to enter
This wave of killing one and chasing longs may still continue to rise

Last week, BTC was blocked at the key resistance level of the illustrated Gann angle line and pulled back. Currently, it has reached a critical turning point in the market, and we are focusing on two levels:
1. On the illustrated Gann angle line at 8/1, BTC needs a four-hour volume-driven solid candlestick breakout (currently around 72,900) to have the possibility of creating a new high above 76,000.
2. If the daily closing price stays below the red line at 70,350, it will increase the likelihood of a top at 76,000.
Recently, I have been emphasizing— the rise from 60k is a rebound against the

Previously, two operational paths for BTC were distinguished: the red path—another high point above 76,000; the blue path—a rebound from 65,000 that does not break 76,000. The common point between the two is that after the rebound starting from 60k ends, the downward trend will continue. So the question is, has the rebound from 60k ended?
This week's market movement has once again added suspense. If today BTC breaks through the angle at the intersection of the two Gann angles (marked in red) and tomorrow morning's daily and weekly candles both close above this intersection, then there is a hig

Gold accelerated its rally yesterday after a temporary easing of the US-Iran conflict, but no sustained follow-through was seen afterward, which validates the view that "the rise here is essentially just a rebound." Specific historical events and news only accelerate the market’s pace but do not change its overall trend.
If the rebound from 4100 corresponds to the blue downward segment in the chart, then it has already met the basic requirements, meaning the rebound is about to end or has already ended. If the price then breaks below 4553, it confirms that gold will follow the blue route.
If t

BTC this morning experienced an upward surge due to news factors. Regarding the US-Iran issue, I think it's still a bit early to say it has been fully resolved. My impression is that it's more about delaying time rather than truly ending. We won't speculate too much on the specific reasons.
The rally from $60k in BTC is a rebound. Based on the rebound levels, two potential paths—red and blue—have been outlined for the subsequent trend.
Red Path: The rebound from $60k targets the entire decline from $126,000 to $60k. Under this path, a breakthrough above $76,000 is allowed to create a new high

Gold did not break below 4600 and experienced a sharp surge this morning driven by news factors.
Therefore, today's tweet has made a slight adjustment to the small-level analysis of gold, mainly based on the rebound level starting from 4100.
Red line: The movement of gold from 4100 is a rebound of the entire decline from 5600 to 4100. If it can break through the 4910-4930 level and stay above it in the near term, the likelihood of this route will increase. The subsequent rebound target for gold will be near the historical high, with 5300-5450 as a possible endpoint.
Blue line: The rebound of

At the moment, I believe the probability of BTC breaking above 76,000 in the short term is decreasing, unless a major historic event occurs—such as a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations or a complete resolution of the Strait of Hormuz passage issue—after which it may be possible to push through 76,000. However, even then, this move that starts from 60,000 is very likely just a rebound. After the rebound ends, BTC still needs to break below. Based on this, my trading strategy in the near term is still mainly trend shorts, with short-term long orders as a supplement. There has never been a trad

The decline from CRCL136.6 is a correction. After the correction ends, CRCL will continue to rise.
Currently, it depends on whether it can quickly break through the 96.5 level. If it can break through and stabilize above the red resistance zone shown in the chart, the correction for CRCL may be over. Under this scenario, CRCL has been running from 83 in a rise at the same level as 49.6-136.6.
If it cannot break through 96.5 in the near term, then the move from 83 is a small-scale rebound. Once the rebound ends, CRCL will continue to move downward to find the end of the correction. Even if it f

The main position is empty, reduce leverage.
There isn't much room above; on the 4-hour chart, there's a strong resistance zone between 70,500 and 72,000, which can be used for shorting.

The main position is empty, so reduce leverage.
There isn’t much room above; on the 4-hour chart, there’s a high-quality pressure/resistance zone between 70,500 and 72,000, which can be used to add to the short.

Assuming Bitcoin's rebound point is at 76,000, based on the 60k starting point for BTC, then the drop from 76,000 to 65,000 is the first wave of decline. The movement from 65,000 to the present is a rebound against the decline from 76,000 to 65,000. Currently, this rebound has met the basic requirements, and after it ends, BTC will continue to decline. This is the scenario depicted by the blue route in the chart, and also the route I believe has a higher probability.
Yesterday, some friends mentioned that since BTC has not fallen below 65,000 after reaching 4.2, an even higher peak above 76,00

Hello everyone, I am Ah Hao. We are currently in the mid-stage of a bear market. Assuming 76,000 is the rebound endpoint from 60k, and then another wave of decline similar to the 97,900→60k drop occurs, then the most intense wave of decline in the bear market will be basically complete. At that point, the total decline from 126,000 will have reached 80%-90%.
But in a bear market, you can't just look at the decline and price; another important dimension is time. If in Q3 2026, BTC drops to 52,000 or even 48,000, we will enter the late stage of the bear market. This period may manifest in variou

Hey guys, at 8:30 PM tonight, the U.S. March unemployment rate data will be released.
Most financial markets are closed.
It seems only the crypto market is open for trading tonight, haha.
Crypto traders should be prepared for the U.S. unemployment rate announcement.
Due to the Qingming Festival, the A-shares market will be closed from April 4th to April 6th.
Due to Good Friday, the U.S. stock market will be closed tonight on April 3rd.
Tonight at 8:30 PM, only the crypto market is still open for trading.
Get ready for the unemployment rate data!

The two trends in Bitcoin Chart 2 are based on 76,000 as the rebound endpoint:
Red: Starting from 76,000, a new downtrend begins. Recently, BTC hit a new high above 60,000 and a low below 65,000 (e.g., 62,000–63,000), completing the first wave of decline. Then it rebounds against the first wave, and after the rebound ends, a second wave of decline begins, which will break below 60,000.
Blue: Breaks through 60,000 directly and continues downward.
Therefore, the main task moving forward is to short on rallies, of course, I am referring to trend shorts.

Gold retreated last night after encountering resistance in our observation zone. The next two days require extra attention.
If the blue route shown in the chart is valid, then no new highs above 4800 are allowed, and the pullback starting at 4800 should be sufficiently long and deep. If the pullback only lasts one or two days and then breaks above 4800 again, gold will follow the red route.
Assuming 4800 is the end of the first wave rebound starting from 4100, then gold will complete a pullback early next week and still have a subsequent upward move of similar magnitude between 4100 and 4800.