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This paper discusses the circumstances under which rational market participants choose to convert convertible bonds. It primarily analyzes the characteristics of convertible bonds, market environment, and various events (such as redemption, forced redemption, and put options) that influence the decision to convert. The conclusion summarizes that rational investors will opt to convert under certain conditions (such as when the pure bond value exceeds the redemption price, or when the underlying stock pays dividends), and will also engage in arbitrage when the price is below the conversion value. The article also points out some issues not covered, such as credit risk and market operation costs.

Richard Thaler's Nobel Prize-winning core discovery is that human behavior does not conform to the traditional economic assumption of the "rational actor." He proposed four fundamental principles of behavioral economics, revealing common misconceptions in investment decision-making and helping people identify their cognitive biases.

Is there going to be some other trick again?
When I was learning from magic books before, I thought convertible bonds under 100 were like a pie in the sky. Now I realize they’re all traps—each one requires careful analysis of financial statements and announcements, for fear of missing any potential risk that could blow up. It’s so exhausting. For those who buy dozens of convertible bonds and spread out their investments, I don’t know if they analyze each one thoroughly, or how they can confidently hold the stocks.

Gradually receiving some bank instant rebates, over 10,000. Are there any good channels recommended for converting them into cash? I’ve been buying JD cards all along, already bought over 20,000, and I don’t want to buy more, worried I won’t be able to use them all.

In the past, I always had trouble timing my buy and sell points when trading stocks. After a long period of tinkering, my final profit was similar to that of investing in financial products, and I felt that trading stocks wasn't suitable for me.
Starting in 2023, I began trading options and futures. For the first few months, I invested small amounts while learning and practicing simultaneously. I tried various strategies, often facing setbacks. From 2024 onward, I focused solely on hedging strategies, continuously summarizing and improving. My returns gradually stabilized, with only two temporary large drawdowns so far: one on 924, and another earlier this year when the IC and IM premiums sharply narrowed. However, since these were hedges of the same instrument, extreme price deviations couldn't last more than a few days, and I quickly recovered the unrealized losses. When calculated based on monthly settlement dates, there have been no losses overall.
Core strategy: Starting capital of 500 units, no additions or withdrawals. Monthly profits are directly invested in a six-month reverse repurchase, providing a foundation to recover from major mistakes. I only use hedging strategies, and at the time of opening a position, I can calculate the maximum possible loss, controlling it within 5%.

There are quite a few A-share highway enthusiasts. Those who are wholeheartedly invested in highways have made a lot of money on Ninghu High-Speed, and they are all major investors. So, what do you think about this opportunity? Would you consider it a way of sending money?

Kehua is very stable; being a cash alternative is also a good option.

Jiangxi Copper Corporation Limited 2026 Public Offering of Exchangeable Corporate Bonds for Professional Investors Announcement
http://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/bond/announcement/exchangeable/c/new/2026-04-02/132024_20260402_DL2M.pdf
Jiangxi Copper Corporation Limited 2026 Public Offering of Exchangeable Corporate Bonds Coupon Rate Announcement
http://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/bond/announcement/exchangeable/c/new/2026-04-03/132024_20260403_JAMC.pd

January +7%, Precious metals are really strong.
Silver arbitrage is lively, silver-tin arbitrage is busy escaping the top.
February +2.8%, Micro trading rotates nicely.
Zijin's comeback, holding on without panic.
March -7.25%, Heavy troops on micro trading.
Amidst chaos, still hoping for a bull market.
April -2.41%, Cleared out micro trading positions.
Due to fear of a prolonged battle, light positions and watchful waiting.

Please recommend books published in recent years by the investment gurus on Jisilu or Snowball. I enjoy reading books.

Planning savings for my mother-in-law, I researched several banks and shortlisted three or four candidates. The three-year fixed deposit interest rate is roughly between 1.5% and 2%. Although the return increase is only about 0.03%, considering safety, I ultimately decided to keep the funds in the bank. Compared to the risks of stock market investments, I believe bank deposits are more secure. Please recommend safe investment channels with an annualized return of over 2%.

Have you ever tried to stubbornly hold onto a stock that won't delist?
https://www.jisilu.cn/question/519868

The Nasdaq is plunging—is now the time to jump in?
https://www.jisilu.cn/question/519892

After quitting your job, what are all of you doing as full-time investors?
https://www.jisilu.cn/question/520025

What are Iranian investors feeling right now?
https://www.jisilu.cn/question/520011

The 23rd probably won't drop any further, right?

I used Trae to create a real-time options market data Excel sheet, and I want to share it with everyone. The implied volatility column seems to be incorrect. I have no programming background and fiddled with it for a long time. If any experts can help optimize it, that would be great.
File shared via cloud drive: ChiNext ETF Options Real-Time Market Data_4569月.xlsm
Link:

Previously recorded on Jisilu. Due to some reasons, I stopped recording. Now work is quite relaxed (the salary is low), essentially a professional investor with plenty of free time, so I am restarting the record.

The expected return for 2025 is 43%, and this year so far is 12%.

Currently, the holdings are quite diversified, with ten positions. The positions from largest to smallest are: Tencent, China International Gold, Kuaishou, China National Offshore Oil, Sanqi Interactive Entertainment, Xiaomi, COSCO Shipping Development H, Yanghe, Shenzhen Holdings, and Deyuan Pharmaceutical.

Feel free to exchange ideas.

The article emphasizes that ordinary people can make steady profits through correct investment methods, based on real trading analysis of two accounts. The first account achieved a 247% return with a low principal and a conservative strategy, while the second account gained 48.59% through broad-based index investing. The author points out that high returns do not rely on talent but are achievable through replicable methods, and that a steady investment approach is more effective. The key investment principles summarized are: "High returns are not about talent, slow is fast, and don't chase highs," encouraging ordinary investors to grow their wealth gradually with small steps.

At a 4% dividend yield, you can probably just relax now, right?
The Big Four banks are considered too big to fail, so I didn't choose joint-stock commercial banks.
Would bank ETFs or dividend funds be better than directly buying the Big Four banks?

Recently, the fluctuations have been quite large, and I've lost a lot of money. I saw Teacher Jin's profit statistics post, and many have turned from positive to negative. I can only quietly comfort myself that everyone is losing, but it's not a loss if it will come back, and it will all recover. But when exactly it will come back, and whether we can wait that long, is hard to say.

Liberal arts state-owned assets, currently this price is a bit attractive.