TusoTheGreatDemonKing

Gold: What is the biggest contradiction right now?
The current core contradiction in gold is: the long-term logic is very strong, but in the short term, it’s being held back by the “no rate cuts” policy.
The long-term strength is because global debt is simply too large. Ultimately, governments can only rely on printing money to resolve debt, which is the fundamental support for gold. Whether you believe the dollar will collapse or not, as long as you believe that “governments won’t intentionally let the economy collapse,” the long-term trend for gold is upward.
The short-term bottleneck is bec

The transmission mechanism of oil price shocks: Which stage are we currently in?
Since the outbreak of the US-Iran war in late February 2026, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly come to a halt. This route previously handled about one-fifth of global crude oil shipping. Brent crude oil prices surged from around $57 at the beginning of the year, with monthly increases exceeding 50% at times; in April, the spot price of Brent even reached $141.37 per barrel, the highest level since 2008.
Oil price increases → Rising inflation expectations → Central banks forced to delay or even raise

Trump delivered a nationwide speech on the Iran situation at 9:00 AM Beijing time today (April 2nd). The core message is that the U.S. may end military operations against Iran within 2-3 weeks. The market generally interprets "war ending" as a major positive signal.
The market views Bitcoin and Ethereum as "risk assets." The end of the war means reduced geopolitical uncertainty, a rebound in risk appetite, and capital flowing from safe-haven assets into stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other high-risk sectors. This directly drives price rebounds. Before the speech, Bitcoin broke through $68,000,