TrendForce says 2026 server demand is still strong, but actual shipment growth will likely be constrained by component shortages, particularly in the general-purpose server market

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They now expect total server shipments to grow about 13% YoY in 2026, down from a previous expectation closer to 20%, not because demand is weak, but because suppliers are prioritizing higher-margin AI server products
The main bottlenecks are PCBs, CPUs, PMICs, and BMC chips. In some cases, lead times are approaching one year, which is limiting how much general server demand can actually be fulfilled
For PMICs, AI servers require much higher power density, so suppliers are allocating more 8-inch BCD capacity toward AI-related products. On top of that, Samsung’s planned shutdown of its S7 8-inch fab in Korea is tightening capacity further, pushing PMIC lead times from 21–26 weeks to 35–40 weeks
BMC chips are facing similar pressure because foundries are prioritizing higher-margin and more urgent AI chip orders, reducing supply for general servers. That is pushing BMC lead times from 11–16 weeks to 21–26 weeks
On the AI server side, TrendForce expects shipments to grow around 28% YoY in 2026, with ASIC-based AI servers growing faster than GPU-based systems. Even so, GPU servers will still remain the majority of the market
They did slightly lower their view on ASIC AI server share, from nearly 28% to around 27%, because companies like Meta and AWS still need time for chip validation and tuning, which creates some risk of shipment delays