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The Final Negotiation in the Strait of Hormuz
The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, as the core of US-Iran tensions, has severely disrupted global energy flows since February 2026. Iran has effectively closed the strait or imposed strict restrictions on passage. #AprilMarketOutlook Reports indicate that each ship is charged #四月行情预测 million in transit fees (, affecting approximately 20% of global oil trade. Recent developments over the past 24-48 hours show a mix of optimistic signals and deep contradictions regarding a ceasefire and negotiations to reopen the strait. However, inconsistencies in statements from all parties suggest that any concrete agreement remains far off.
On March 31, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that U.S. military operations in Iran could end “within 2 to 3 weeks.” Trump emphasized that the security of the strait is no longer the responsibility of the United States but should be handled by “the countries using the strait,” criticizing allies $2 , especially European countries and NATO ), telling them to “go get their own oil.” The White House claimed that “serious talks” are ongoing with Iran and that “significant progress” has been made, but it is reported that Trump has had indirect contacts with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Meanwhile, Iran has made its position clear: Tehran repeatedly emphasizes that Iran has not engaged in any formal negotiations with the U.S. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced they will intercept ships attempting to pass through the strait and will respond strongly. President Masoud Pezeshkian stated they are “ready to end the war,” but only if “specific guarantees are provided to ensure the safety and interests of the Iranian people.” Pezeshkian also requested assurances against future attacks during a meeting with the European Council President. Iranian officials have stated they rejected the 15-point U.S. proposal and will not compromise on sovereignty and rights.
The latest negotiation situation can be summarized as follows:
- U.S. side: Indirect signals claiming “progress”; Trump’s latest statements suggest actions may conclude soon.
- Iran: No formal talks, only conveying “We are ready but need guarantees.”
- Third parties: Reports indicate Pakistan, China, and some European countries are mediating, but no specific progress has been publicly disclosed.
- Strait situation: Still largely closed or under strict restrictions; neither the U.S. nor Iran has taken substantial measures to fully open it.
Analysts interpret Trump’s “handing over the strait to others” as a “post-war retreat” strategy but warn that geopolitical risks will persist. Experts point out that attempts to forcibly reopen the strait ( including ground operations ) could lead to very dangerous consequences; diplomacy remains the only realistic approach. With both sides maintaining their positions, the possibility of achieving a permanent ceasefire or strait liberalization by April remains uncertain.
**This is not investment advice, market prediction, or endorsement.** Events are changing rapidly; contradictory statements and uncertainties could trigger new developments at any time. Handling geopolitical issues cautiously and distantly, conducting independent research, and paying attention to official sources are always the most accurate ways. We recommend you follow the latest updates personally.
#四月行情预测
Final Negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz crisis, at the heart of the US-Iran tension, has severely disrupted global energy flows since February 2026. Iran's de facto closure of the strait or heavy restrictions on passage (with some reports alleging a $2 million transit fee per ship) have affected approximately 20% of global oil trade. Developments in the last 24-48 hours reveal both optimistic signals and deep contradictions in negotiations for a ceasefire and the reopening of the strait. However, the inconsistencies in the statements of the parties indicate that any concrete agreement is still a long way off.
US President Donald Trump stated on March 31, 2026, that US military operations in Iran could end "within 2 to 3 weeks." Trump emphasized that the security of the strait was no longer the responsibility of the US, but should be undertaken by "the countries using the strait," criticizing allies (especially European countries and NATO) by telling them to "take your own oil." While the White House claims that “serious talks” are ongoing with Iran and that “great progress” has been made, it is alleged that Trump has had indirect contacts with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
On the other hand, the Iranian side is responding with a clear rejection. Tehran repeatedly emphasizes that it is not conducting any formal negotiations with the US. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced that it is turning back ships attempting to pass through the strait and will respond harshly. President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that they are “ready to end the war,” but that this is only possible with “concrete guarantees that will guarantee the security and interests of the Iranian people.” Pezeshkian also demanded guarantees against future attacks during a meeting with the President of the European Council. Iranian officials state that they have rejected the US’s 15-point proposal and will not compromise on their sovereign rights over the strait.
The latest situation in the negotiations can be summarized as follows:
- US side: Indirect messaging and claims of “progress”; Trump’s recent statement signals that operations may end soon.
- Iranian side: No official talks, just a message of “we are ready but we want guarantees.”
- Third parties: There are reports of Pakistan, China, and some European countries playing a mediating role, but no concrete progress has been publicly disclosed. - The situation of the Strait: It is still largely closed or heavily restricted; neither the US nor Iran has taken concrete steps towards a full opening.
Analysts interpret Trump's approach of "leaving the Strait to others" as a "post-war withdrawal" strategy, while warning that geopolitical risk will continue. Experts state that attempts to forcibly reopen it (including ground operations) could have very dangerous consequences and that diplomacy is the only realistic way. At this stage, with both sides maintaining their positions, the possibility of a permanent ceasefire or the liberalization of the Strait in April remains uncertain.
**This is in no way investment advice, market forecast, or endorsement.** Events can change rapidly; contradictory statements and uncertainties can lead to new developments at any moment. Approaching geopolitical issues cautiously and with distance, conducting your own independent research, and following official sources is always the most accurate approach. I recommend that you personally follow current developments.