First, the US-Iran situation is on the verge of explosion, and geopolitical risks have already driven gold prices higher. Risk assets like ETH are most afraid of a sudden surge in "safe-haven sentiment."

Second, Trump has publicly criticized Powell multiple times, saying "not cutting interest rates is opposing the US economy." As long as Powell dares to say "pause rate adjustments" tonight, the market will interpret it as "the Federal Reserve tightening liquidity," which is a direct sell-off signal for ETH.
Third, there are non-farm payroll data this week, and the market is currently in an "extremely sensitive period," where any small movement will be amplified.