If there are no major negative news or black swan events such as Federal Reserve interest rate hikes in the first half of this year, BTC is unlikely to fall below the $40,000 level. The third wave of trend decline, which started from the previous rebound high of 76,000, may find support between 55,000 and 60,000.

From a time perspective, if it drops to around $40,000, it would indicate that the bear market is progressing too quickly, which does not align with the market's usual rhythm. Therefore, a comprehensive assessment suggests that, in the absence of extreme negative factors, the possibility of BTC falling below the $40,000 threshold in the first half of this year is low. The market is more likely to complete its correction within this relatively high range.