February 28, 2026

The United States has once again taken action against Iran, with Israel and the U.S. military launching an operation codenamed "Judas Shield." Multiple explosions occurred in Tehran, the capital of Iran. Although the U.S. had issued ample warnings about this military action, it is expected that financial markets and commodity markets will experience intense price volatility. Today is Saturday, and the U.S. stock market has not yet opened. From the sharp decline in the crypto market, it’s clear that the impact of this military operation on the U.S. stock market is unavoidable. Having lived in peaceful times for so long, it often feels like war is far away from us, but who knows what will happen in a few decades?
Previously, many people viewed cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as safe-haven assets, but this attribute has been repeatedly disproven. During times of war and chaos, the prices of cryptocurrencies, led by Bitcoin, are actually affected negatively, which contradicts most people's traditional understanding. However, the current decline is actually manageable; although there are a few percentage points of drop, after a recent rebound, the price has not broken through the lowest point despite the rise and fall. Now, we just need to wait for the U.S. stock market to officially open and see if the crypto market will follow with another wave of decline.
Based on current market analysis, the price trend still aligns with a phase of bottom-range oscillation. If the war between the U.S. and Iran fully erupts, the financial markets will be significantly impacted. In the worst-case scenario, if Bitcoin’s price does not break below key support levels, it can be confidently said that $60,000 is the bottom for the first half of this year. As for future trends, we can only watch and see as we go. In a sense, war is also a black swan event, and...