Global Tin Supply Landscape: How Top-Producing Nations Shape the Market

The global tin market experienced significant volatility in 2024, driven by supply constraints from major producing nations and rising demand from renewable energy and semiconductor sectors. Tin prices peaked at approximately US$35,575 per metric ton in April before moderating to around US$28,000 by year-end. This price trajectory reflects fundamental supply-demand imbalances centered in a handful of key countries that dominate world production. Understanding which nations lead tin output—and how disruptions in these countries ripple through global markets—is essential for investors tracking commodity trends and supply chain resilience.

According to data compiled from the US Geological Survey, a concentrated group of countries controls the vast majority of tin supply. The world’s top tin-producing nations account for roughly 80% of global output, making their operational stability and trade policies critical factors in determining market prices. Recent geopolitical tensions, mining suspensions, and policy changes across leading producers have fundamentally reshaped the tin supply landscape heading into the later 2020s.

China’s Commanding Position and Emerging Export Controls

China reinforced its position as the world’s largest tin-producing country in 2023, extracting 68,000 metric tons—a slight decline from 71,000 MT in 2022 but still commanding roughly one-third of global production. The country also holds the world’s largest tin reserves at 1.1 million metric tons, underscoring its long-term dominance in supply availability.

However, China’s critical role in global tin supply faces new headwinds. In December 2024, Beijing imposed fresh export restrictions on essential minerals including gallium, germanium, and antimony, signaling an escalation in its trade conflict with the United States. Analysts widely expect tin to be added to this restricted export list as both countries compete to secure supply chains for semiconductor and renewable energy technologies. Such restrictions would fundamentally disrupt global tin markets, potentially driving prices significantly higher and forcing manufacturers to seek alternative sources.

Supply Disruptions in Southeast Asia: Myanmar’s Crisis and Indonesia’s Retreat

Myanmar emerged as the second-largest tin-producing nation in 2023 with 54,000 metric tons, a substantial jump from 47,000 MT in 2022. This surge positioned the country ahead of Indonesia, which had nearly matched China’s output just one year prior. Myanmar’s production centers on the self-administered Wa state, home to the Man Maw mine—one of the world’s highest-output tin operations.

Yet Myanmar’s rapid ascent masks a serious supply crisis. In April 2023, Wa state authorities announced a comprehensive mining suspension beginning in August to conduct industry audits and implement new regulations. The ban devastated global tin supply: Man Maw and other operations were shuttered, and no major restart has occurred as of mid-2024. This single disruption constrained tin concentrate flows to China and Indonesia, driving prices higher throughout 2024 and forcing buyers to ration supplies. Analysts at BMI Research cited Myanmar’s supply constraints as a primary driver for revising 2024 tin price forecasts upward to US$30,000 per metric ton.

Indonesia, the third-largest producer, recorded 52,000 metric tons in 2023, marking a steep year-over-year decline from 70,000 MT in 2022. After nearly reaching parity with China in 2022, Indonesia conceded ground to both Myanmar and sustained lower output throughout 2024. Recognizing tin’s strategic importance, Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources designated tin as a critical mineral, acknowledging its centrality to semiconductor and high-tech applications but also highlighting the nation’s vulnerability to supply volatility.

Secondary Producers: From Resilience to Resilience Challenges

Beyond Southeast Asia, a second tier of tin producers contributes meaningful supply but faces its own constraints. Peru produced 23,000 metric tons in 2023, down from 28,200 MT in 2022, and served as the primary tin supplier to the United States. The country’s San Rafael mine, operated by Minsur, ranks among the world’s largest tin operations by throughput.

The Democratic Republic of Congo generated 19,000 metric tons in 2023, with modest growth expected following expansion at the Bisie tin complex—home to the world’s highest-grade tin ores at Mpama North and newly constructed Mpama South. Producer Alphamin Resources is ramping production toward 20,000 metric tons annually.

Brazil and Bolivia each contributed 18,000 metric tons in 2023. Brazil’s output grew marginally, supported by its vast Pitinga mine in the Amazon—the world’s largest tin resource by contained metal, with proven reserves exceeding 279,000 metric tons. A notable shift occurred when Minsur agreed in 2024 to sell its Brazilian subsidiary Mineração Taboca (which operates Pitinga and Brazil’s only fully integrated smelter) to China Nonferrous Trade for US$340 million. This acquisition signals China’s strategy to directly secure downstream refining capacity outside its borders.

Bolivia faced severe operational challenges when its state-owned Vinto smelter declared force majeure in March 2023 due to coal shortages, resulting in production losses exceeding 200 metric tons weekly. Compounding the crisis, outstanding debts of US$90 million prevented concentrate deliveries from the Huanuni and Calquiri mines, triggering labor unrest among miners demanding debt forgiveness.

Smaller Producers and Informal Mining Challenges

Australia’s output remained relatively steady at 9,100 metric tons in 2023, with minimal year-over-year change. The country’s Metals X company acquired a 23% stake in First Tin to accelerate development of the Taronga tin project in New South Wales, targeting 2027 production startup following a robust feasibility study.

Nigeria recorded 8,100 metric tons in 2023, up 15.71% from 2022’s 7,000 MT, as higher global tin prices above US$30,000 sparked renewed mining activity in Plateau State. However, Nigeria’s sector remains largely unregulated, with artisanal and illegal mining dominating production. Between 2018 and 2022, Nigeria’s broader solid minerals sector—including tin—contributed a mere 0.17% to GDP according to the National Bureau of Statistics, indicating that significant informal production escapes official accounting and tax revenue.

Malaysia rounded out the top-ten tin-producing nations with 6,100 metric tons in 2023, up from 5,000 MT in 2022. Malaysia Smelting, the world’s second-largest tin smelting company and a century-old operation, posted better-than-expected profit margins in the second and third quarters of 2024, positioning the firm to benefit from bullish long-term tin forecasts.

Market Outlook: Supply Constraints Meet Rising Demand

The concentration of tin production among a small number of countries—particularly in China, Myanmar, Indonesia, and Peru—creates structural market vulnerabilities. Supply disruptions in any single major producer cascade through global markets due to limited spare capacity elsewhere. Meanwhile, demand drivers remain robust: semiconductor manufacturing relies on tin for soldering applications in mobile phones, computers, and electric vehicles; renewable energy deployment (solar and wind) incorporates tin in electronic components; and electric vehicle production continues accelerating.

Analysts project a constructive long-term tin supply-demand balance, with prices potentially reaching US$45,000 per metric ton by 2033 as technology adoption accelerates globally. However, near-term volatility will likely persist given ongoing Myanmar supply constraints, geopolitical trade tensions between the US and China, and operational challenges in secondary producers. Investors tracking commodity supply chains should monitor quarterly production reports from top tin-producing countries and watch for policy shifts that might further restrict export flows or accelerate supply disruptions.

Securities Disclosure: This analysis is based on publicly available data as of early 2026. Readers should conduct independent research before making investment decisions.