Gate News reports that on March 8, on-chain analyst “1011 Collapse Insider Whale” agent Garrett Jin posted on X platform that there is a clear correlation between historical oil supply shortages and international crude oil price increases: in 1973, about a 7% supply gap drove oil prices up by approximately 300%; in 1979, a 4-5% gap doubled oil prices; around 1990, supply disruptions also caused significant price hikes. All three crises were related to Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts impacting energy supply. Currently, the potential supply shock around the Strait of Hormuz (a critical global oil transportation route) is estimated at about 15%, far exceeding historical cases. Most institutional models assume this shock will last only “a few days to weeks,” but very few anticipate it could last several months. Garrett Jin stated that if market expectations about the duration are broken, more long positions may be forced to enter, further driving up oil prices.
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