CFTC Chair Selig Announces Crypto Perpetual Futures Guidance Within Month, Targets Prediction Markets

U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Michael Selig stated on March 3, 2026, at a Milken Institute event in Washington, D.C., that the agency will issue guidance permitting crypto perpetual futures contracts in the United States “within the next month or so,” aiming to repatriate trading activity and liquidity that migrated offshore under the prior administration.

Selig, currently the sole Senate-confirmed CFTC commissioner with four vacancies unfilled, also indicated that the agency will provide “guidance in the very near future” on prediction markets, asserting federal jurisdiction over event contracts amid ongoing disputes with state gambling regulators. The announcements came during a joint appearance with Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins, highlighting the agencies’ coordinated “Project Crypto” approach to digital asset regulation.

CFTC to Permit Crypto Perpetual Futures Within Month, Addressing Offshore Migration

Selig characterized the upcoming perpetual futures guidance as a response to industry migration overseas during the previous administration, which he said “drove a lot of these firms and the liquidity offshore.” Perpetual futures contracts, which do not expire and are often associated with leveraged trading, have developed primarily outside U.S. jurisdiction due to regulatory uncertainty.

“We’re working towards getting true perpetual futures, true professional futures here in the U.S. within the next month or so,” Selig said. “We expect to announce that very soon.” The guidance would provide a regulatory framework for U.S. exchanges and trading firms to offer these products domestically, potentially capturing trading volume currently executed on offshore platforms.

U.S. exchange Kraken recently announced a move into perpetual futures for tokenized stocks, but limited the offering to non-U.S. users, illustrating the current market structure that Selig’s guidance aims to address.

Prediction Markets to Receive Clear Standards Amid Jurisdictional Disputes

Selig indicated that the CFTC will soon provide guidance on prediction markets, setting “very clear standards” for platforms offering event-based contracts. The agency is also pursuing a more comprehensive rulemaking process to give that position permanent footing beyond easily reversible guidance.

The announcement comes amid active litigation and regulatory conflict between federal and state authorities over oversight of prediction market platforms. Selig has asserted the CFTC’s “exclusive jurisdiction” over event contracts as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, pushing back against enforcement actions by state gambling regulators including those in Nevada, Massachusetts, and Connecticut against platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

When asked about the coexistence of federal and state regulatory regimes, Selig stated that “they can exist in parallel,” suggesting a framework where both layers of oversight may apply to prediction market activities.

Innovation Exceptions and DeFi Framework Under Development

Selig and Atkins outlined additional elements of their coordinated “Project Crypto” initiative, including plans for “innovation exceptions” that would allow cryptocurrency experimentation without immediate fear of regulatory enforcement. These exceptions are designed to provide safe harbors for developers testing new products and technologies.

The CFTC also plans to define how decentralized finance developers will be approached by regulators, following years of enforcement actions and regulatory uncertainty in the DeFi space. Selig noted that formal definitions and standards for DeFi participants are forthcoming as part of the agency’s broader digital asset framework.

Congressional Clarity Remains Essential, Both Chairs Emphasize

Despite the agencies’ proactive rulemaking efforts, both Selig and Atkins emphasized the limitations of regulatory guidance in the absence of statutory certainty. Atkins noted that following a 2024 U.S. Supreme Court decision limiting federal agency interpretive authority, regulatory actions face greater legal challenges and are more easily reversed by future administrations.

“We really do need statutory certainty,” Atkins said. “We need the sense of Congress enshrined in statutory form to direct the courts where to go and support the commission’s efforts on crypto.”

Selig echoed the sentiment, stating that “there’s only so much you can do without legal certainty from Congress.” He noted that legislation would provide durable authority for the agencies’ regulatory frameworks.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, currently under Senate consideration, would establish a comprehensive regulatory system for U.S. crypto markets. However, the legislation remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee amid negotiations over stablecoin yield provisions, ethics restrictions, and other contentious issues. No markup has been scheduled, and the legislative window continues to narrow as midterm elections approach.

FAQ: CFTC Crypto Perpetual Futures and Prediction Markets

What are crypto perpetual futures and why are they significant?

Perpetual futures are derivatives contracts that do not have an expiration date, allowing traders to maintain positions indefinitely while paying or receiving funding rates to keep prices aligned with the underlying asset. They are often used for leveraged trading and have become a dominant product in cryptocurrency markets, with most trading volume currently executed on offshore platforms due to U.S. regulatory uncertainty.

How will the CFTC’s guidance affect prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi?

The CFTC’s forthcoming guidance will establish clear standards for event-based contracts, asserting federal jurisdiction over these products. This could resolve ongoing legal disputes between prediction market platforms and state gambling regulators, providing a unified regulatory framework. However, the guidance’s impact will depend on its specific provisions and whether courts uphold the CFTC’s jurisdictional claims.

What is the current status of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act?

The market structure legislation remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee, with no markup scheduled. Negotiations continue over stablecoin yield provisions, ethics restrictions on government officials’ crypto holdings, and other contentious issues. The White House has held multiple meetings with industry and banking representatives, but no compromise has emerged, and the legislative window narrows as midterm elections approach.