Cardano (ADA) fell below $0.28 as whales sell off, with increasing pressure from the downtrend line.

Cardano (ADA) price dropped below $0.28 on Wednesday, completely erasing the modest rebound from the previous day. On-chain data and derivatives market signals both weakened, reinforcing a bearish scenario as whale addresses continue to reduce holdings, while the funding rate flipped to negative — a sign that bearish sentiment is prevailing.

Technically, ADA remains below a long-standing downtrend line. Until it can break through this key resistance zone, the overall market trend remains downward, with short-term correction risks still present.

Whales Selling Off, Negative Funding Rate Fuels Pessimism

Supply distribution data from Santiment supports the bearish outlook, as large wallets continue to reduce their positions.

Specifically, wallets holding 100,000–1 million ADA (red line), 1–10 million ADA (yellow line), and 10–100 million ADA (green line) have collectively sold off 260 million ADA since February 24 through Tuesday. This large-scale sell-off significantly increases supply pressure, casting a shadow over short-term price prospects.

ADA Supply Distribution Chart | Source: Santiment In the derivatives market, funding rate data from CoinGlass continues to signal negativity. The indicator turned negative on Monday and remained at -0.009% on Tuesday, indicating short sellers are paying longs. This trend reflects prevailing bearish sentiment toward ADA.

In addition to whale sell-offs and negative funding rates, investors’ risk appetite is also dampened by escalating tensions between the US and Iran, which weigh heavily on risk assets like Cardano.

Cardano Funding Rate Chart | Source: Coinglass US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington is preparing for a potential escalation of attacks on Iran within the next 24 hours. This statement followed President Donald Trump’s warning that a large-scale attack wave has not yet occurred, raising fears of prolonged conflict. Meanwhile, the US State Department has advised citizens to leave Middle Eastern countries immediately due to serious security risks. These geopolitical tensions continue to erode investor confidence, adding downward pressure on the crypto market.

Cardano Price Forecast: Downtrend Continues to Limit Recovery

Cardano (ADA) price hovered around $0.26 on Wednesday after a slight rebound. Although selling pressure has eased somewhat, the short-term outlook remains bearish as the price continues to be held below the long-term downtrend line — which previously rejected attempts to rise above $0.29 on Sunday. Additionally, ADA is still trading well below its 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $0.30 and $0.37, respectively, indicating bulls have yet to regain control.

The daily RSI stands at 43, below the neutral 50 level, reflecting weak upward momentum after a brief rally toward $0.30. Meanwhile, the MACD has only marginally moved above its signal line and remains near zero, with a modest positive histogram — signaling that the recovery lacks conviction and the overall price structure remains in favor of sellers.

Daily ADA/USDT Chart | Source: TradingView From a technical perspective, the $0.29 zone — aligned with the downtrend line — remains the nearest resistance. A strong improvement in buying volume and a successful breakout could target $0.32 next, which would serve as a stronger resistance level.

On the downside, immediate support is around $0.25, with a deeper support at $0.24 — a critical zone that could act as a “line of defense” to prevent a sharper correction.

A daily close above $0.29 would open room for a recovery toward $0.32, easing current downward pressure. Conversely, if $0.24 is broken, the medium-term downtrend is likely to strengthen, with the next target near the February 6 low of around $0.22.

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