Year-to-date return on investment: 447%! Mastering the Taiwan and US stock markets with AI semiconductor supply chain. The powerful retail investor and investment methodology revealed.
A retail investor focused on the AI semiconductor supply chain has achieved a cumulative return of 477% since the beginning of the year through NVIDIA’s recent earnings report. He states that most of his gains are not short-term luck but the result of months of continuous research and strategic positioning. He generously shares his trading methodology, which covers material bottlenecks, industry chain structures, and cross-market capital flows. In his operations, he concentrates on key bottleneck points within the AI industry chain. His approach is not limited to a single industry or stock but is built on cross-industry supply chain analysis.
From materials manufacturers to memory chips, research lays the foundation for returns
In his trading strategy, this investor does not bet on a single hot stock but focuses on critical bottleneck points within the AI supply chain. For example, AXTI, benefiting from tight supply of Indium Phosphide (InP), has seen multiple-fold gains. Memory groups like Micron (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK) are riding the trend of increasing AI memory demand, delivering significant returns.
Additionally, he uses implied volatility changes in Korean ETFs (EWY) to indirectly position for market expectations around SK Hynix and Samsung, and participates in sector swings such as power and utility ETFs (XLU). Most trades have yielded returns ranging from tens to hundreds of percent within short periods. Notably, his strategy is not based on a single industry or stock but on cross-industry supply chain analysis. His research scope includes:
Memory bottlenecks: SNDK, MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, SIMO
Optical communication/photonics supply chain: LITE, COHR, AAOI, IQE, AXTI
Power and grid infrastructure: XLU
Advanced packaging and process equipment: AMKR, ONTO, CAMT, KLIC, FORM, AEHR
He mentions that many core judgments were made months ago, such as analyzing Google server BOMs to infer optical communication demand or deducing semiconductor capacity constraints from material supply bottlenecks like Unimicron and Nittobo. The current gains are essentially the seeds planted months earlier.
Playing the Taiwan, US, Japan, and Korea stocks, capital rotates into Asian markets
Beyond industry logic, global capital flows have also been a key driver of performance this year. Recently, market funds have shifted noticeably from the US and China to Taiwan, Japan, and Korea. He notes that Taiwan stock funds attracted over $1 billion in a single week, Korean foreign net buying in early February was about 1.37 trillion won (roughly $1 billion), and institutional investors in Japan have also been increasing long positions.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs data shows North American short activity reaching -1.52 standard deviations. The investor believes this is driven by hyperscalers’ capital expenditures flowing into Asian supply chains, prompting institutional follow-on investments. For example, the market’s forward P/E ratio for SK Hynix is even estimated as low as about 2.2x in 2027, indicating that capital is already pricing in the explosive AI demand.
Four-step investment methodology, 447% return in two months
His methodology divides the investment process into four stages:
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Publishing initial research (Thesis)
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Turning insights into specific trading ideas
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Continuously supplementing with in-depth research (Follow-up DD)
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Reviewing results after market validation
He has established a “Research → Trade → Track” model, focusing on momentum-driven cross-industry themes rather than long-term holding of individual stocks or purely theoretical analysis. Despite his impressive performance, he remains cautious. He states, “I’m not perfect and make mistakes, but what matters is that I see more green than red every day.” He also admits that this year’s success partly depends on market timing but is grateful that his research logic has been validated by the market.
In terms of capital size, his account has grown from a small account to about $83,000 within two to three months. He continues to focus on future themes, including power grid infrastructure and photonics supply chains.
This article: Year-to-date return of 447%! A retail investor dominating the AI semiconductor supply chain in US and Taiwanese stocks, with a revealed investment methodology. Originally published on Chain News ABMedia.