The probability that the court orders Trump to refund tariffs on Kalshi quickly rises to 66%

Polymarket Trader Nets Millions with Bitcoin Bets

A Polymarket trader gained $2.35M in one month through disciplined short-term Bitcoin bets, leveraging high-stakes strategies and consistent wins, with individual trades yielding significant profits.

Bitcoin Prediction Market Trader Earns $2.3M on Polymarket in One Month

A trader has reportedly made over $2.3M in one month on Polymarket by betting on Bitcoin's price movements, controlling three wallets. This notable profit arises amid a recent Bitcoin surge to $68K, boosting investor confidence in the market.

Geopolitical Tensions Drive $478M Trading Surge on Polymarket

_Record Iran strike bets drive $469M volume on Polymarket, raising insider wallet and market integrity concerns._ Rising tensions in the Middle East triggered record activity on prediction markets. Polymarket posted its highest single-day volume as traders rushed to price in the Iran strikes.

The probability of predicting "Bitcoin falling to $50,000 this year" on Polymarket has dropped back to 62%

BlockBeats News, March 1st, Polymarket's prediction that "Bitcoin will fall to $50,000 this year" has decreased to 62%. Additionally, the probability of BTC rising to $80,000 within the year is currently 72%, and the probability of rising to $90,000 is currently 47%.

Kalshi refunds the prediction fee for "Supreme Leader Khamenei's death," promising not to let users incur losses.

CEO Tarek Mansour of Kalshi clarified on platform X that the company does not list betting markets based on death events and has implemented rules to prevent exploitation. Following the death of Khamenei, Kalshi assured full refunds for users, ensuring fairness and compliance.

Polymarket has multiple Iran-related contracts, with the Ayatollah Khamenei resignation contract attracting $45 million in trading volume.

ChainCatcher reports that, according to CoinDesk, since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, there have been over a dozen Iran-related contracts on the prediction market Polymarket. The prediction market for the fall of Khamenei alone has attracted $45 million in trading volume. The trader account with the highest trading volume is named “Curseaaaaaaa,” who profited $757,000 by betting “Yes.” Four other traders also achieved six-figure gains.