Analysis: If ETH breaks through the key neckline, it is expected to rebound to the $2,500 range

BlockBeats News, February 17 — Despite ETH declining approximately 20% since February and briefly falling below the $2,000 psychological level, on-chain data and derivatives structures indicate that the market is brewing a potential rebound.

On-chain data shows that over 2.5 million ETH flowed into long-term holding addresses in February, with the holdings of related addresses increasing from 22 million to 26.7 million since 2026. At the same time, approximately 37.22 million ETH (over 30% of circulating supply) are staked, and the circulating supply continues to shrink. The network’s fundamentals have also significantly improved, with weekly transaction counts reaching a record high of 17.3 million, median Gas fees dropping to $0.008, about 3,000 times lower than the peak in 2021.

Technically, ETH on the 4-hour chart may be forming an “Adam and Eve bottom” reversal pattern. If the price effectively breaks above the $2,150 neckline, the target range is projected between $2,473 and $2,634. If the recent high and low structure is broken, $1,909 is a key short-term liquidity level.

In derivatives, the open interest of ETH contracts has fallen to $11.2 billion, a significant decline from the August 2025 cycle high of $30 billion, but the estimated leverage remains relatively high at around 0.7. Data shows that approximately 73% of accounts are in long positions; the liquidation heatmap indicates over $2 billion in short positions are under pressure to be liquidated above $2,200, while around $1 billion in longs near $1,800 are also at risk of liquidation, suggesting higher risk of a squeeze above that level.

Analysts believe that if ETH can successfully break above $2,150, it could open up short-term upside potential, targeting the $2,500 level.