Hong Kong Insights: Level One is Dead, Agencies Take Over, KOLs Wear Multiple Hats, Market Makers Still in the C-Position

Author: Professor Suo

A Night Sneaking into Hong Kong

Nothing much, I just went alone to Hong Kong to see what’s different about this Consensys. I watched the excitement, but it was their event; we didn’t have anything.

Many Agency Events, KOLs Wearing Multiple Hats

I looked at quite a few events, especially noticing that many are organized by agencies for project teams.

I also heard that even in this market downturn, some agencies are still making huge profits.

• 1. Heard that several projects with a market cap of $1 billion have agencies earning 0.5-1% token dividends;
• 2. Heard that some agencies, how much they earn is unclear, but at least they’ve entered the international market and opened global offices;
• 3. Some agencies are not satisfied with just being agencies—they’re getting involved in project affairs, including but not limited to acting as “advisors”;
• 4. The line between agencies and KOLs is blurred, similar to the relationship between project teams and KOLs—they can be “the same identity” and hold multiple roles simultaneously;

Currently, some KOLs are both project teams and agencies, enjoying full benefits, and it seems some are even market makers.

It’s clear that agencies are still closer to project teams, especially after @KaitoAI’s demise.

No One at the Main Venue, Only Small Meetups

I heard that the main venue was empty, especially this year, even more so than before, but the attendees were said to be very numerous.

Mostly small, intimate gatherings.

Almost all are gatherings of friends and old friends, not “strangers,” with introductions and renewals.

A few times I peeked inside the venue but didn’t see many people; instead, there were quite a few outside.

They were spread around the entire Central area, and I could see familiar faces everywhere.

I didn’t see any “project team meetups” or “exchange meetups,” and I only received a message from @moonkimbinance inviting me to @BNBCHAIN.

Unlike previous years, where exchanges competed for talent, chartered flights, and banquets, this time I didn’t see that.

Maybe I need to work harder to climb up; I’ve only heard of them but never seen them.

Boring Meetings, Bickering Continues

It seems everyone is hopeless about the market, and while despairing, the spat between @binance and @okx continues across the airwaves.

Whether it’s the sudden reappearance of “Brother 50,000” (formerly “Sister 50,000”), or the return of “Nurse Xu” to the scene.

Or @cz_binance frequently posting “autobiographical” content, etc.

There are also various scandalous stories spreading, but I can only say, don’t believe rumors, don’t spread rumors—just watch the show.

This reminded me of the WeChat group brawl in 2020, which ultimately led upward. I wonder if this time it can also go upward.

Anyway, you’ve seen on Twitter—people inexplicably forcing others to pick sides; if you don’t, you get scolded; if you pick the right side, you get scolded by the opposition.

I hope women won’t spread lewd jokes about women outside. It’s the same road as before, but it’s really a loss to be overpowered or to overreach.

Market Makers Still Center Stage

I went to meet some project teams with a friend, asking if they needed community support, and the consistent answer was: Being an active market maker can do everything.

Although many market makers died on 10.11, many still survive. Rumors say there are “interest-free loans,” “low-interest loans,” and more.

Currently, most market makers don’t focus on big projects but target small ones, mainly perp+alpha strategies. They rarely do spot, as the chips are too scattered.

Some market makers have even run off with tokens provided by project teams.

Basically, anyone with money can be a market maker. Many VCs introduce their trusted market makers to projects to earn “brokerage fees.”

• a. The top market makers now seem to be only a few, all actively making markets. The one that used to do $MMT doesn’t seem to be doing well anymore; most of its projects have shut down, and its account appears to be banned.
• b. The most popular recently is $KITE, based in Hong Kong. (They also worked on one of the most notorious projects for 25 years.)
• c. $PIPPIN’s market maker has a bunch of projects, each trying to find “fish,” and in the end, only $PIPPIN found some.
• d. The group including $BULLA and $SIREN is said to be started by newcomers in Singapore—bold and ruthless, but no one knows if they can sustain.

These four are interconnected—each one overlaps with the others.

In summary: it’s a high-risk game. Having money isn’t enough; you need to be able to fish in the market. Catching fish means making money, but how to catch fish—that’s the fundamental question.

Primary Investments Have Basically Disappeared

I talked with some first-tier investors, and most have gone into hibernation.

Some exchange’s primary investment departments have started requesting refunds from their previous investments; if they don’t, they send legal notices.

One exchange once told employees that “knockoff projects” could be taken, believing there would be a “knockoff season” in November. As everyone can see, that didn’t happen, and their primary departments are now recharging their previous investments.

Most are withdrawing from crypto’s primary projects because investing in secondaries is better than primary, and the order of getting “cut” is different.

People are confused—some are fighting for their investments, others don’t know how to invest anymore. After all, it’s better to just give money to acquaintances and split the gains.

Secondary Funds Are Now Standard for Primary Funds

Many funds that used to only have primary now have secondary departments.

It turns out that investing well isn’t enough; selling well is also crucial, especially in a bullish market.

I once invested in a fund’s first phase, which had a 1000x return on the first project and 700x on another, but most likely we won’t get our principal back. So, it looks good, but the money is gone, and it’s meaningless.

We Are All the Fish Everyone Wants

Once in the bathroom, I overheard some project team or market maker talking about their big plans.

They said they’ve received offers from all exchanges, trying to get KOLs to hype and make others short against them, finding more advisors to give tokens that aren’t immediately unlocked, and so on.

It made me want to leave without wiping, but I was afraid of getting beaten, so I just pretended I didn’t hear.

Right now, I see us, the retail investors, as fish in the pond—everyone wants to eat us.

Exchanges want to eat, project teams want to eat, market makers want to eat—there are so many fish, they’ve already drained the pond, leaving no chance for small fish to grow.

In the past, people would leave some roots when harvesting chives, waiting for the next time. Now, they’re just scooping up all the small fish, pulling the chives out by the roots.

Non-famous, non-Texas master @MetaHunter168 once said, “When you’re playing Texas Hold’em and don’t know who the fish is, then you are the fish.”

The most painful realization is that people are paying attention to me just for a few bucks in my pocket.

Your Identity When Out and About Is Self-Provided

I went to Hong Kong mainly to see if I could find someone bragging. Before I went, many people asked me if certain things were real, if I knew certain people, or if someone was just bragging.

I heard a lot of news.

Adding to the recent scams circulating on social media, I can only say, when you’re outside, your identity is what you create for yourself.

I met someone claiming to be “xxx’s” best friend, childhood friend, boyfriend, girlfriend, etc.

I approach everyone with “respect,” just trying to minimize social interactions. If you’re impressive, that’s your business; don’t get involved with me.

Good people may not make money, but they won’t hurt others. Bad people, on the other hand, can’t even make money—truly hopeless.

People Turn into Food for the Outside World

I’ve heard various agency gossip, criticizing each other—for example, some projects failed after launch, some promised to pump but didn’t, some took too much money, some defaulted and didn’t do anything, etc.

I’ve seen some people who are involved with dozens of agencies as partners, some who are both KOLs and agency founders, and others who have transitioned from agency to KOL.

Some rely on “upward socializing,” treating “brothers” as dishes to meet all kinds of “monsters and ghosts.” The “brother dish”—who can decipher its flavor?

A friend once said that A and B used to be regulars at C’s dinners because C used A to attract people, partnering with B for the first and second halves. Now, A and B no longer attend C’s gatherings because C no longer needs A to attract people, and B no longer qualifies to sit at the table.

Fortunately, I’ve refused to socialize with strangers and don’t socialize with unfamiliar people anymore, and I feel more comfortable.

Final Words

Everyone seems to say crypto has no future, switching to all-in AI.

But when I come to Hong Kong, it seems everyone is here to make a quick buck—maybe the last wave, maybe another wave. Ultimately, everyone has to step down.

So, it’s all about the game of betting.