Pi Coin whales resume buying! Despite losing 90 million, they increase their position, purchasing 7 million coins in a single week.

Pi’s price has fallen to a historic low and is hovering there, but Pi’s largest whale has resumed purchasing after a one-month pause, buying 7 million tokens last week worth over $938,000. The whale currently holds over 383 million tokens valued at more than $50 million, down from a peak of $140 million, representing a loss of about $90 million.

Top Whale Loses $90 Million but Continues Buying: Contrarian Investment or Playing with Fire?

(Source: PiScan)

After a one-month pause, Pi’s top whale resumed purchasing. Last week, the whale bought 7 million tokens worth over $938,000. Previously, it transferred tokens worth over $2 million to two unknown addresses. This “transfer of $2 million before buying $938,000” pattern has sparked market speculation—perhaps the $2 million was profit-taking, risk diversification, or freeing up funds for a new round of buying.

The whale currently holds over 383 million tokens, worth over $50 million, meaning it has lost hundreds of thousands of dollars in recent months. At its peak, its holdings were valued at over $140 million. From a high of $140 million to $50 million, the loss is about $90 million, a 64.3% decline. Such a heavy loss is catastrophic for any investor.

However, instead of cutting losses, the whale has not only held on but resumed buying after the pause. This behavior sends two possible signals: first, the whale believes the current price is severely undervalued and a great bottom-fishing opportunity, expecting a rebound. Second, the whale is deeply trapped and increasing its position to average down is the only way out. The former is driven by conviction; the latter by helplessness.

In terms of holdings, 383 million Pi tokens is an astonishing figure. At the current price of about $0.132, it’s worth roughly $5.055 million. This scale makes the whale an absolute major player in the Pi ecosystem, and its trading decisions could have systemic market impacts. The weekly purchase of 7 million tokens, roughly $924,000 at current prices, though less than 2% of its total holdings, still provides significant support given Pi’s daily trading volume of about $50 million to $100 million.

Whale Operation Timeline

Peak period: holdings valued at $140 million (price around $0.365)

Pause in buying: stopped about a month ago, observing the market

Asset transfer: moved tokens worth $2 million to unknown addresses

Resumed buying: last week, bought 7 million tokens, signaling bottom-fishing

From an investment strategy perspective, this whale may be adopting a “gradual accumulation, long-term hold” approach. During Pi’s sharp decline from its high, it likely bought in multiple tranches at different levels, resulting in an average cost much higher than the current market price. Continuing to buy now is an attempt to further lower the average cost, hoping to reduce losses or turn profitable when prices rebound.

However, this “buying more as it falls” strategy is highly risky. If Pi’s price continues to decline to $0.05 or lower, the whale’s losses will further expand. Only if Pi truly bottoms out and rebounds can this contrarian approach be justified. For retail investors, following whales requires extreme caution, as whales have deeper pockets and longer holding periods, making it difficult for ordinary investors to withstand similar losses and waiting times.

Anticipated New CEX Listing: The Last Hope to Enter the US Market?

Another major news for Pi Network is that the second-largest US cryptocurrency exchange has added Pi to its trading platform. This indicates that the exchange plans to officially launch Pi later this year, allowing US users to trade the token. Listing on mainstream exchanges often triggers price surges, providing a potential bullish catalyst for Pi.

The significance of Pi being added to the second-largest US exchange is substantial. Typically, before a token’s official listing, the exchange prepares technically—adding trading pairs, setting up wallets, testing deposits and withdrawals, etc. Pi appearing on this exchange suggests these preparations have begun or are imminent. An official launch could happen within weeks or months.

For Pi’s price outlook, the US exchange listing will be a key short-term catalyst. Historically, tokens tend to surge 20-100% on their first day of listing on major exchanges, driven by new users, liquidity, and market expectations. However, such “listing effects” are usually short-lived; if the project’s fundamentals do not improve, prices tend to fall back within days or weeks.

From the US market perspective, the listing on the second-largest US exchange provides a compliant trading channel for US investors. Previously, Pi was mainly traded on offshore exchanges, making participation inconvenient and risky for US users. After Kraken’s listing, US users can buy and sell Pi legally and conveniently, opening a large potential user base. As the largest crypto market globally, new US users could significantly boost Pi’s demand.

Nevertheless, investors should recognize that the US exchange listing is merely a short-term catalyst and does not alter Pi’s long-term fundamentals. Pi Network still faces uncertainties such as the unclear timeline for mainnet launch, lack of real-world use cases, and ongoing token unlocks. Kraken’s listing may offer short-term trading opportunities but should not be mistaken for a reason to hold long-term.

Technical Outlook Fully Bearish: $0.10 as the Next Target

(Source: TradingView)

The daily chart shows that Pi’s price has been in a strong downtrend over the past 12 months, recently falling near its all-time low of $0.132. It has broken key support levels, including the October 2022 low of $0.152. Breaking previous lows is a significant bearish signal, indicating that the support at prior lows has been completely broken and there is no new support below.

The price remains below all moving averages, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) has surged sharply, indicating the downtrend is accelerating. ADX (Average Directional Index) measures trend strength on a scale of 0-100. Values above 25 suggest a clear trend; above 40 indicates a strong trend. A rising ADX in this context signals that downward momentum is strong and increasing, which is highly bearish.

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and other oscillators continue to decline. A falling RSI indicates persistent selling pressure and extreme market pessimism. When multiple technical indicators align bearish—moving averages, ADX, RSI—the reliability of the downtrend increases. A reversal becomes very unlikely.

All signs point to the possibility that sellers are targeting a key support at $0.10, and the token may continue to decline in the short term. As unlocks accelerate and demand remains weak, this drop is likely to happen. Breaking below $0.10 would be a psychological blow to market sentiment, potentially triggering panic selling.

From a risk management perspective, current technical and fundamental signals do not support bottom-fishing Pi. While whale buying provides some confidence, it should not be a reason for retail investors to follow. Whales have larger capital pools and longer investment horizons, capable of enduring 64% losses and holding through downturns. Ordinary investors facing similar losses could suffer severe financial hardship.

On Wednesday, due to the failure of the crypto and banking sectors to reach an agreement on the “Clarity Act” at a White House meeting, the crypto market experienced a sell-off, and Pi’s price declined accordingly. The “Clarity Act” aims to delineate SEC and CFTC responsibilities, providing a clear regulatory framework. Its failure has spread negative sentiment across the entire crypto market, with riskier altcoins like Pi suffering greater impact.

This decline coincides with the upcoming release of key macroeconomic data in the US, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). These data points are crucial for assessing whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon. Under macroeconomic uncertainty and regulatory setbacks, Pi’s outlook remains bleak.