Will Bitcoin revisit $50,000? CPI, Federal Reserve policies, and the yen's fluctuations are becoming key variables influencing the market outlook. Investors are closely watching these factors to gauge whether Bitcoin can break through the $50,000 resistance again or face new challenges amid global economic uncertainties.

Entering the second week of February, Bitcoin remains hovering around $70,000, with market sentiment leaning cautious. Several traders believe that the current price has not yet established a reliable long-term bottom, and there is still a possibility of further decline in the coming weeks, with some opinions even pointing toward the $50,000 range.

Trader CrypNuevo pointed out that the recent rebound appears more like a short-term rally designed to clear short positions in the $72,000 to $77,000 range rather than a trend reversal. He expects the long upper shadows formed earlier to be gradually filled, a process that could take several weeks. Another analyst, Daan Crypto Trades, believes that after experiencing intense volatility, Bitcoin is more likely to enter a consolidation phase, waiting for new directional signals.

On the macro front, this week’s key variable comes from the United States. January CPI data is about to be released, and market expectations for a Fed rate cut in March have noticeably cooled. CME Group’s FedWatch shows that the probability of holding rates steady has risen to 82%. Amid the backdrop of Trump nominating Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, investors are concerned that monetary policy may become more hawkish. Mosaic Asset Company pointed out that high core inflation coupled with steady economic growth is pushing up long-term interest rate expectations and continues to suppress risk asset valuations.

The dollar’s movement is also worth noting. The US dollar index rebounded after hitting multi-year lows in January but has yet to stabilize above 98. Analyst Aksel Kibar considers this a critical zone for the next decade, potentially determining the medium- to long-term direction. Swissblock Chief Macro Economist Henrik Zeberg compared the current pattern to early 2021, suggesting that if history repeats, Bitcoin could see a significant surge in the coming months but will ultimately top out against a strong dollar backdrop.

In Asia, political developments in Japan are seen as new sources of disturbance. After Prime Minister Sanae Takashi’s re-election, markets expect Japan to adopt more aggressive fiscal stimulus policies, increasing the risk of yen depreciation. XWIN Research Japan pointed out that yen depreciation could alter global capital flows, putting short-term pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin. Robin Brooks also warned that after the general election, the yen might face another downward shock.

On-chain data shows unusual activity among miners. On February 5, miners transferred about 24,000 BTC to exchanges, reaching a new high since 2024. CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain believes this reflects a redistribution phase in the market, which may increase short-term selling pressure but does not necessarily indicate a long-term trend reversal.

Amidst the interplay of multiple macro and on-chain signals, Bitcoin’s next move remains uncertain. CPI data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and changes in the dollar and yen will collectively determine the market’s risk direction this week.