Solana (SOL) life or death? A 15% correction in a week, $95 becomes the battleground between bulls and bears

February 2 News, Solana (SOL) price fell below the $100 psychological level on Monday, continuing a downward trend of over 15% in the past week. After encountering resistance at the weekly resistance level of $126.65, SOL has remained under pressure and is currently fluctuating between $99 and $104. The market is closely watching the $95 level, which is seen as a key support determining the short-term direction.

Derivatives data reflect a clear bearish sentiment. The OI-weighted funding rate has turned to -0.0080%, indicating that shorts are paying longs, suggesting more traders are betting on further decline. The long-short ratio has dropped to 0.97, also pointing to the dominance of bearish forces. Signs of cooling are also evident at the institutional level, with Solana-related ETFs recording approximately $2.45 million in net outflows last week, marking the first weekly negative flow since launch.

From a technical perspective, if the daily closing price continues to stay below $100, it could trigger a new round of selling. The first target is around $95. If this level is broken, $79 could become the next significant support. The current RSI is only 25, in the extreme oversold zone, indicating concentrated selling pressure but also the potential for a short-term rebound. Since mid-January, the MACD has experienced a bearish crossover, with the negative histogram continuing to expand, suggesting the short-term trend remains weak.

In terms of price structure, the $100 to $105 range has repeatedly formed rebounds over the past year and now serves as the last line of defense for bulls. Support levels below include $98 and the $90 to $92 zone. If a rebound occurs, a volume breakout above $110 to $115 is needed to ease downward pressure, while $126.65 remains a strong medium-term resistance.

The weekly chart shows that SOL has broken below the sideways trading range since November 2025, turning the technical pattern bearish. The current Fibonacci support zone of $95 to $100 has become the focus of the bulls and bears. If this support is lost, the price could drop to the $80 to $85 range. Short-term market volatility is intensifying, and the $95 level is now a critical watershed for determining SOL’s next phase of movement.