Trump and Schumer unexpectedly reach a funding consensus! The risk of a US government shutdown drops sharply, and Polymarket data significantly declines.

January 29 News, in the past 24 hours, the likelihood of a US government shutdown has significantly decreased. The latest forecasts show that market concerns over a government shutdown have rapidly cooled, with the related probability dropping sharply from the previous high near 80%. Meanwhile, positive signals have been sent out by Trump and Senate Democratic Leader Schumer regarding key funding issues, indicating a potential easing of the previously tense political deadlock.

According to multiple sources, both sides have engaged in substantive negotiations to prevent an indefinite government closure. One core proposal is to separate Department of Homeland Security spending from the other six federal appropriations bills, in order to provide ongoing funding for remaining medical programs and other federal agencies for the rest of this fiscal year. If the relevant bill can pass before the Friday midnight deadline, it will help prevent the US government from falling into another full shutdown.

Previously, the Democratic side explicitly stated they would not support the appropriations bill initially passed by the House, especially given clear disagreements over immigration enforcement issues. Schumer once emphasized that he would not cast a crucial vote unless ICE was constrained and reformed. However, after a closed-door meeting with Trump, their stance softened, and the market responded quickly.

Why is the risk of a government shutdown so closely watched? On one hand, if federal agencies cease operations, many important legislative and regulatory processes will be forced to halt. Key legislation related to finance and digital assets, including the CLARITY Act, could be delayed again. Reflecting on the last shutdown, the SEC temporarily paused review of new digital asset funds, directly impacting industry progress.

Additionally, the CFTC is working to establish a more comprehensive asset regulatory framework. If the government shuts down again, these efforts may be forced to be put on hold. Recently, regulators issued new guidelines on tokenized assets, and the market, which had been expecting policy continuity, now hopes to avoid any sudden disruptions.

Against the backdrop of high inflation, debt pressures, and election cycles, every move in Washington can influence global financial sentiment. The recent contact between Trump and Schumer has temporarily alleviated market anxiety and bought time for short-term policy stability. Future negotiations will continue to be a key factor affecting US economic expectations and the performance of risk assets.