Why does the Meme you buy only keep falling? — Deconstructing the growth spiral and volume of Meme using first principles reasoning

Author: danny

In most people’s eyes, Meme coins are irrational celebrations and gambling casinos. But from a mathematical perspective, the birth of every thousandfold myth is no accident; it is actually a middle school-level application problem of spatial geometric evolution.

This article proposes a disruptive perspective: the market capitalization of Meme coins is not “raised” but “supported.” The value of Meme can be calculated!

We are accustomed to focusing on the fluctuations along the Z-axis (price height), but we overlook the fact that the key to survival is determined by the base radius jointly constructed by X (narrative density) and Y (distribution nodes). A Meme with only height and no base is just a very thin “needle” that falls at the slightest breeze; only by continuously expanding the consensus radius can it support a stable, geometrically growing wealth cone under the gravity of capital.

Note: This article is a popular science piece on “Financial Physics,” not a rigorous econometrics paper. It offers everyone a brand-new perspective to view Meme.

1. The Beginning of Theory: The Three-Dimensional Coordinate System of Meme

In the current cryptocurrency market, Meme coins are often seen as irrational celebrations. But is that really the case?

If we strip away emotional noise, KOL shoutouts, and community hype, we will find that the birth and demise of every phenomenally viral Meme follow a strict mathematical logic.

The essence of Meme coin is tokenization of attention economy. Its market cap is not determined by traditional discounted cash flow (DCF), but by the breadth of narrative, community resonance, and explosive capital power.

For better discussion, we define these factors as the XYZ three-dimensional growth spiral model.

These three axes are not just independent variables; they are strongly reflexive—that is, a change in one variable reinforces another, forming a positive feedback loop.

Let’s now explain these parameters:

X axis: Narrative density and cultural memes

Definition: The “genes” of Meme. Includes core memes (like Doge), origin stories (like CZ’s pet name), cultural symbols (like Pepe the Sad Frog), and the richness of community derivative creations.

Key indicators: Originality of narrative, replicability, emotional resonance.

Y axis: Propagation potential and node network

Definition: The information transmission pipeline. From top nodes (CZ, Elon Musk) to secondary nodes (Alpha Callers, KOLs), then to end nodes (ordinary retail investors).

Key indicators: Node weight, coverage of dissemination, shoutout frequency.

Z axis: Capital flow and liquidity carriers

Definition: The monetization result of attention. Includes on-chain capital inflow, liquidity depth—that is, the accumulated value or total sell volume that can be absorbed.

Key indicators: Market cap, trading volume, turnover rate, and liquidity (most important indicator).

2. Growth curve illustration of the interaction among XYZ axes

If we plot these three axes in three-dimensional space, a successful Meme growth trajectory generally shows a spiral upward trend: (see diagram below)

Bottom (Start): X, Y, Z all close to zero.

Ignition (Ignition): Y-axis surges (KOL shoutout), driving Z-axis (price) to jump. The trajectory line tilts toward the Y-Z plane.

Spinning (Spin): Z-axis growth attracts more Y (more discussion), Y stimulates X’s creative derivatives (rich content). The trajectory line begins to rotate around the X-Y-Z axes.

Ascension (Ascension): As X upgrades (X’), the cone’s base area expands (broader consensus), Z-axis (market cap) reaches new heights.

Failed Meme (Rug Pull): Usually shows a burst in Y-axis, a brief rise in Z-axis, but X-axis fails to upgrade (lack of narrative), leading to Z collapsing rapidly back to zero, with the trajectory forming an inverted V drop.

3. Evolution of the Growth Curve: Spiral Rise in Four Stages

From the previous section, we know that the lifecycle of Meme is not linear but a vortex that continuously expands around the Z-axis (capital flow). In this section, we analyze based on the four development stages of Meme.

The standard evolution path is as follows: (I’m also amazed—AI drew this so cool?!🤣)

(Note: For ease of reading and understanding, I won’t write in paragraph form)

Stage 1: Ignition (The Ignition) —— X + Y → ΔZ

A powerful narrative (X) combined with a high-weight propagation node (Y) instantly ignites capital (Z).

Taking Broccoli as an example:

X (Narrative): On February 13, 2025, CZ announced that his pet dog’s name was “Broccoli.” This is not just a simple pet name but carries deep metaphors like “CZ’s comeback” and “BNB ecosystem revival,” and “Broccoli” itself has a distinctive sound symbol and visual image (green = rise).

Y (Node): CZ himself, as the top traffic node in the industry (Y-Max), has a dissemination potential that even surpasses Super Bowl ads with a single tweet.

Z (Result): Funds respond instantly. Hundreds of tokens with the same name appeared on Solana and BNB Chain within hours, with the top tokens’ market cap surpassing 1.5 billion USD in a few hours. Early snipers made millions within 20 minutes.

In this stage, Z-axis growth is pulse-like, entirely dependent on a single Y-axis explosion.

Stage 2: Reflexivity Establishment (The Reflexivity Loop) —— Z↑→ Y↑

Price (Z) itself becomes the best advertising and dissemination channel (Y).

When Z-axis (market cap) rapidly rises, creating the wealth effect of “hundredfold golden dog,” it will feedback onto the Y-axis.

Passive dissemination: KOLs who previously paid no attention to this Meme start mentioning it actively to ride the wave (traffic capture).

FOMO spreading: The top gainers list itself is the strongest dissemination node. Media reports (e.g., “Address profits 6 million USD”) further expand the dissemination radius.

BNB Chain’s strategy: BNB Chain officials inject energy into the Z-axis through “Meme Innovation Contest” and “Daily Airdrops” (daily purchase of 33 BNB for golden dogs airdropped to the community) to maintain Y-axis activity.

Stage 3: Narrative Upgrade and Solidification (Narrative Upgrade) —— Y_expansion → X’

Expanded dissemination network (Y) forces narrative (X) to undergo secondary iteration (X’).

Relying solely on the “CZ’s dog” meme (X) cannot sustain long-term market cap. When Y expands to hundreds of thousands of addresses, the community begins to spontaneously create new narratives (X’).

From “meme” to “culture”: communities start making emojis, establishing the “Broccoli Church,” and endowing tokens with spiritual significance (e.g., “Anti-VC coin,” “Symbol of BNB Chain revival”).

Tooling narratives: For example, FLOKI evolved from a simple Meme to an ecosystem with Valhalla games and DeFi protocols. This is also an upgrade from X to X’.

Stage 4: Value Black Hole (The Value Black Hole) —— X’→ Z_max

Upgraded narrative (X’) can support larger capital scales (Z).

When the X axis completes its upgrade from “local dog” to “totem,” the upper limit of Z-axis is unlocked.

Change in capital nature: From early “quick in and out” smart money to “diamond hands” community funds and institutional funds attempting to allocate.

Infrastructure absorption: At this stage, Meme is no longer just a customer acquisition tool; it begins to feed back into on-chain infrastructure. Massive trading volume brings large BNB burns and fee income for BNB Chain, while also providing liquidity for other applications within the ecosystem (such as Aster derivatives trading, Pancake trading volume).

4. A Conjecture Triggered by the Cone Volume Formula?

Careful readers might notice that the above 3D diagram resembles a cone. Is it possible that we can apply the cone volume formula

V = ⅓ * Base Area * Height to the Meme coin growth model?

4.1 Variable Mapping: Building the Growth Model

We map the geometric elements of the cone to your variables x, y, z:

Base radius r = x * y: The boundary of social consensus.

x (Content/Narrative): The “genes” of Meme. Good content determines the contagiousness of consensus.

y (Propagation nodes): Community, KOLs, and coin-holders. Nodes determine the coverage of the narrative.

r (Radius): Represents the physical boundary of consensus. The larger the radius, the more people know and are willing to believe the story, making the base more stable.

Height h = z (Capital/emotional leverage): The speed and density of capital inflow determine the vertical height of price increase.

Volume V = Market Cap (Market Cap): The final market cap scale.

4.1.2 Why is the radius x * y a quadratic relationship?

In the Meme world, the combination of narrative and nodes exhibits network effects.

If content x is just mediocre imitation, even with many nodes y, the radius r is hard to expand.

When a highly penetrating narrative (x) encounters high-frequency interactive dissemination nodes (y), the consensus area expands exponentially. The quadratic term in the formula means: Slight expansion of the community consensus (x * y) can lead to a squared increase in the supporting volume (market cap).

4.1.3 Why is capital z a linear height?

Capital z determines how high the price can go. But in the Meme model, without the support of the base area (x and y), capital height is unstable.

If only z (whale entry to push up) exists without r (broad retail consensus), the cone becomes a very thin “needle” that collapses with a slight breeze.

Top-tier Meme (like DOGE, PEPE) has a large base diameter, so even if the capital height h fluctuates, the overall volume remains large.

4.1.4 The charm of the coefficient ⅓: Meme loss and attention decay

Scientists have found that the volume of a cone is only one-third of that of a cylinder with the same base and height. In the Meme market, this represents frictional loss of attention, but ⅓ is just an assumed value; in reality, it could be 1/300.

Not everyone who hears the narrative will buy in.

Not every incoming fund can be converted into long-term market cap.

This coefficient reminds us: the market cap of Meme can never fully cover the attention flow it reaches; there is a lot of bubble evaporation and attention shifting.

4.2 Trajectory analysis: From “point” to “cone”

The upward trajectory of Meme coins generally follows the cone formation process:

Sprouting: Narrative x is just born, nodes y are minimal, capital z just begins to inject. The volume is negligible.

Rooting downward: As more nodes y join, narrative x begins to fissure. The most important at this stage is not price (height), but increasing the number of coin-holders and community activity (expanding radius r).

Vertical eruption: When the consensus base is large enough, capital z inflow produces a remarkable leverage effect. Since the base radius is already solidified, increasing z causes the volume V to expand rapidly.

A successful Meme coin trajectory essentially involves first expanding the base, then raising the height.

5. Limitations and Boundaries of the Cone Volume Formula

5.1 Defining “Healthy” and “Abnormal” Growth States

This model sets r (narrative * nodes) as quadratic, and z (capital) as linear. It has two obvious effects:

Captures network effects: In the Meme field, a tenfold increase in narrative dissemination ® can support a hundredfold increase in market cap (V). This explains why some coins, even before capital (h) explodes, as long as the community foundation ® is solid enough, their valuation potential can jump geometrically.

Explains the physical structure of “collapse”: If the radius r (consensus) shrinks, even with more capital z injected to push up, the cone’s volume will rapidly shrink due to the collapse of the base.

Additionally, through this geometric model, we can easily distinguish two typical failure models:

“Electric pole” model (high z, very low r): Only large whales counter-trading or capital pumping, lacking community discussion and narrative resonance. This cone is extremely unstable; once z withdraws, the volume instantly drops to zero.

“Big pancake” model (large r, very low z): The community is very lively, and the narrative is good, but there is no capital entry. This cone has only area, no volume, representing a “cheering crowd community” that is popular but not commercially successful.

5.2 Limitations

In real secondary markets, the following “physical deformations” need attention:

Coupling between variables: In the formula, r and h are independent variables, but in the Meme market, z (capital) increase will feedback to x (narrative) and y (nodes). This is the famous “rising confidence” effect. The higher the price, the more the narrative seems true, and the faster the nodes spread.

The dynamic of the ⅓ coefficient: In extremely bullish markets, this coefficient may approach 1 (becoming a cylinder), because emotions flatten all losses; in bear markets, it may drop to 1/1000, meaning most attention cannot be converted into buying power.

Lack of a time dimension: The cone is a static geometric shape, but Meme has a time limit. Introducing a “decay rate” would make this model more perfect, as Meme’s narrative x will naturally shrink with aesthetic fatigue.

6. Case Analysis of Broccoli

6.1. Elements of Broccoli

x (Content/Narrative): “CZ personally confirmed” — this is top-level narrative and influence.

y (Propagation node): CZ’s tens of millions of followers, BNB Chain official account, Four.Meme platform, and the “scientists” and PVP players lurking across the network.

z (Capital/Market cap): The on-chain stock of funds on BNB Chain, and “hot money” crossing from other chains.

6.2. Reconstructing the four-stage trajectory

Stage 1: Bottom (Start) — Fog period

Before CZ’s announcement on Feb 13, 2025. x, y, z are almost zero, but the market is full of “static electricity.” The whole network begins to speculate on the name, with many small cone shapes like BNBDog, CZDog, etc., in the wrong direction.

Stage 2: Ignition (Ignition) — Narrative nuclear explosion

CZ posts a tweet, officially announcing the dog’s name as Broccoli with a picture. y (nodes) instantly explode. Twitter and Telegram channels spread almost in seconds.

Since x (narrative) is directly provided by CZ, its authenticity is confirmed. Capital z floods in crazily, with hundreds or thousands of tokens with the same name appearing on platforms like Four.Meme. The trajectory line at this moment shows an almost vertical tilt in the y-z plane.

Stage 3: Spinning (Spin) — Jungle melee (PVP)

Within 2-12 hours after the name is revealed, thousands of Broccoli tokens appear. To compete for the “true form,” communities start crazy derivative creations (competition of x).

At this stage, the model is in rotation. Some tokens rely on community spontaneous buying to increase z, others enrich x with more interesting Meme images.

Only those that can continuously stimulate y (more discussion nodes) and enrich x (narrative upgrades, such as charity or games) can sustain rotation; others, lacking x, lose their spinning force and directly enter collapse.

Stage 4: Ascension (Ascension) — Consensus sedimentation

Finally, 1-2 “true heirs” emerge, gaining attention from the BNB Foundation or recognition from mainstream exchanges.

At this point, the base area r = x * y has been solidified through long-term community building. The narrative has upgraded from “CZ’s dog” to “BNB Chain mascot.” Even if z (capital) fluctuates occasionally, the extremely stable base ensures the cone of market cap remains standing.

6.3 Warning: The Broccoli that Ascends

In the chaos of 2025, 99.99% of Broccoli fell into the “inverted V” collapse.

They relied on fake hype or internal pump to push z to extreme heights during the ignition phase. Developers purely aimed to harvest, with no intention of managing x (content) or y (real community nodes). So this cone is just a very thin “needle.” When z peaks, the base radius r approaches zero, losing balance instantly, and the trajectory drops vertically, leaving chaos behind.

CZ’s Broccoli case proves: the ultimate battle of Meme coins is not about who issues first (z), but about who can turn the “CZ’s pet” point (x) into the largest circle through community power (y).

Broccoli should be the largest-scale “same base area cone speed race” in Meme in 2025. Under the same x narrative, tens of thousands of projects compete in y and z, ultimately proving that only “narrative upgrade + node stickiness” can achieve a breakthrough in market cap.

7. Pnut’s Case Analysis

Decomposition of Pnut’s three-dimensional coordinates

X axis (narrative density - emotion and justice): This is not just a squirrel meme; it carries the narrative of “resisting excessive government power” and “avenging innocent lives.” From “a cute squirrel” → “a hero killed by the system” → “a political totem of the MAGA movement.” Its narrative density has rarely resonated across borders and social strata in Meme history.

Y axis (propagation nodes - dimensionality reduction attack): Top node Y_max: Elon Musk’s continuous tweets, followed by top traffic like Joe Rogan. These nodes are not just “shoutout KOLs” but giant nodes capable of setting social agendas.

Z axis (capital carrier - emotional leverage): Rapid liquidity on Solana, combined with lightning-fast inclusion of top CEXs like Binance, causes z to flow in quickly.

Stage 1. Ignition period: Injecting the gene of tragedy narrative

x (justice/vengeance) instantly forms, y (local community) begins to spread.

The trajectory jumps vertically from the origin. The New York Environmental Protection Bureau’s actions inject highly penetrating x genes into Pnut. At this moment, z (capital) is still sluggish on-chain, but the energy at the base has begun to accumulate.

Stage 2. Spinning period: Top node’s “gravitational pull”

Y axis jumps dramatically due to Musk’s (Elon Musk) intervention (Y → Y_max).

Price z skyrockets, attracting attention across the network. Because Elon’s tweets have strong reflexivity, each doubling of price attracts more traditional media and political KOLs (new nodes) to join the discussion. The trajectory line begins to rotate violently in 3D space, with radius r expanding rapidly.

Stage 3. Ascension period: From “squirrel” to “political totem”

X axis completes its upgrade (from “animal protection” to “US elections/anti-system”).

This is Pnut’s most solid step. Due to the narrative x upgrade, the cone’s base area r = x * y is no longer limited to the crypto circle. At this stage, Pnut is no longer just a local dog but a cultural asset. Even if z (capital) experiences a phased correction, the huge consensus base can still withstand selling pressure.

Stage 4. Black hole of value: Collapse and reconstruction of blue-chip consensus

Listing on top exchanges like Binance, z reaches its peak.

The enormous V (market cap) has already formed. It begins to absorb liquidity within the Solana ecosystem like a black hole. At this point, Pnut’s cone has fully solidified, becoming an object that all subsequent animal Meme attempts to imitate.

Final Words

After reading so many theoretical analyses, you ask me, as an ordinary user, how should I identify, participate in, and embrace the opportunities of Meme on BNB Chain, Solana, Base, Xlayer? How can I catch big opportunities? Achieve great results?

Stay tuned for the next episode.