Today's Cryptocurrency News (January 20) | Trump Threatens Tariff Increase on Greenland; Gold Breaks $4700 to Reach New High
This article summarizes cryptocurrency news as of January 20, 2026, focusing on the latest Bitcoin updates, Ethereum upgrades, Dogecoin trends, real-time crypto prices, and price forecasts. Major Web3 events today include:
XRP price has declined nearly 10% since last week. Amid ongoing macroeconomic pressure, market sentiment for cryptocurrencies has become notably cautious. Multiple data points indicate that XRP’s current market structure closely resembles the phase before the sharp correction in 2022, sparking widespread discussion among investors about whether XRP will break below $1.
On-chain data provides the first warning signal. Glassnode shows that short-term holders with a holding period of 1 week to 1 month are accumulating at prices below the cost basis of holders with 6 to 12 months of ownership. This structure suggests that funds bought at high levels early on are under ongoing psychological and paper pressure. Similar situations occurred in early 2022, followed by a significant downward adjustment.
The second similarity comes from volume changes. Recently, as XRP’s price has fallen, trading volume has not increased accordingly but has continued to decline. This indicates a lack of effective support during the current decline, with cautious sentiment among dip-buying funds. Historically, this “price decline with shrinking volume” pattern often signals a lack of market confidence.
The third risk signal appears in technical indicators. Comparing the current cycle with the phases of 2021-2022, the MACD histogram momentum structure shows high consistency. If XRP breaks below the key support zone of $1.8 to $1.9, the theoretical downside could further expand, testing the critical psychological level of $1.
However, the market is not one-dimensional. Some analyses suggest XRP is at a key pattern decision point. If the price re-establishes above the 100-day moving average and breaks through the $2.48 to $2.52 range, it could release over 30% of upside potential.
In the short term, XRP’s price movement remains highly dependent on technical structure and overall market sentiment. For investors interested in XRP price forecasts and whether XRP will break below $1, managing positions and reducing leverage remain important strategies during this high-volatility phase.
According to market reports, Vanguard Group’s fund Vanguard Group Value Index Fund (VVIAX) has just disclosed its first purchase of Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) stock, totaling 1.23 million shares, worth approximately $202.5 million.
Data from Coinbob’s popular address monitoring shows that, driven by recent continuous gold price increases and a new all-time high of over $4700 today, whales long PAXG (on-chain gold) on Hyperliquid have recorded significant unrealized gains. Notably, the “On-Chain Gold Largest Bull” whale opened a 5x leveraged long position on PAXG on January 2, with an average entry price of $4,415, a position size of about $7.12 million, and current unrealized gains of $50,000 (about 27%), making it the largest on-chain PAXG holder.
Additionally, the second-largest PAXG long whale (“Heavy Gold Metal Bull,” 0x271) followed on January 5 with a 10x leveraged long on both PAXG and GOLD (gold mapping contract). The combined position size is approximately $4.7 million, with unrealized gains of about $280,000 (50%).
Ethereum’s price recently moved below a key breakout zone, with market sentiment cautious, but on-chain fundamentals continue to send positive signals. As of press time, ETH is at $3,162, down about 1.3% in 24 hours. Over the past week, ETH has oscillated between $3,119 and $3,379, with a total increase of about 3.6% over the past month, regaining above $3,000 but still well below the previous high of $4,946.
From a trading perspective, short-term activity has cooled. 24-hour ETH trading volume has decreased by about 19%, to around $20 billion, indicating some funds are on the sidelines. Derivatives markets also weakened, with futures trading volume down over 22%, and open interest reduced to approximately $40.26 billion, suggesting traders are reducing leverage rather than betting on directional moves.
Contrasting with price consolidation, ETH staking data continues to rise. According to Solid Intel on January 20, nearly 30% of circulating ETH is now staked, a new record. About 36.2 million ETH are staked, valued at nearly $120 billion at current prices. Although staking yields have fallen to 2.8%-4% due to increased supply, inflows have not slowed, reflecting long-term network participation.
The queue for staking also signals optimism. Currently, over 2.6 million ETH are waiting to be staked, with a relatively small withdrawal queue, indicating no widespread exit intent. Institutions like BitMine continue to expand ETH staking, viewing it as a core asset allocation.
Technically, ETH remains above the 50-day moving average, with the overall trend intact. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating low volatility and potential for a stronger breakout. If the price breaks above $3,400 on the daily chart, it could test the $3,650–$3,800 range; if resistance persists, a retest of $3,050–$3,100 is possible. The focus on ETH price movement, record-high staking ratio, and key resistance levels remains central to current market attention.
As geopolitical uncertainties rise, crypto markets are closely watching U.S. President Trump’s upcoming speech at the Davos World Economic Forum. Multiple sources indicate Trump is expected to address tariffs, economic outlook, inflation, interest rates, and regulation—key factors influencing short-term trends of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA).
Historically, Trump’s public speeches tend to quickly impact risk assets, especially when macro policy signals are highly sensitive. Concerns are that if Trump adopts a tougher stance on tariffs or reiterates views on monetary policy at Davos, it could amplify global risk aversion, causing significant crypto volatility.
Bitcoin is often the first to react to macro uncertainties. When trade tensions, economic outlook, or dollar policy are involved, BTC tends to lead the direction and influence the broader market. Consequently, Ethereum and other major altcoins usually follow suit, especially if regulation, blockchain applications, or financial innovation are discussed.
For XRP, if the speech involves cross-border payments, tokenization, or financial infrastructure upgrades, market sentiment could be quickly amplified. Solana and Cardano are more sensitive to overall risk appetite shifts; if Bitcoin and Ethereum move directionally, these high-volatility assets tend to follow.
Given the uncertain macro environment, Trump’s Davos speech is seen as a potential short-term catalyst. Traders remain cautious, awaiting clearer policy signals, and expect the market to experience new rounds of sentiment-driven price swings around the event.
As key indicators continue to weaken, Pi Network’s Pi Coin faces a new downside test. Data shows Pi Coin has broken below the $0.20 support, ending a five-week sideways consolidation zone (0.20–0.22 USD). Currently, Pi Coin is around $0.19, down over 93% from its February 2025 high, with limited space to the all-time low set in October 2024.
On-chain and market data reveal mounting fundamental pressures. Daily trading volume of Pi Coin has fallen to about $18.5 million, significantly lower than early stages, indicating declining participation and demand. Meanwhile, token supply continues to expand, with over 4.6 million Pi Coin entering the market daily. According to PiScan, about 55.8 million tokens are awaiting unlock by the end of this month, and over 1 billion new tokens are expected to enter circulation within 12 months.
In the context of weak demand, such rapid unlocks may further increase inflationary pressures. Notably, the number of whale addresses holding over 10 million Pi Coin has been decreasing since early this year, suggesting some long-term holders are gradually exiting. This shift can weaken market confidence and heighten retail caution and panic.
Technically, Pi Coin’s chart is also bearish. Daily candles show a break below the rising wedge and formation of a double top, with MACD and RSI signaling bearish momentum. Without clear support levels, continued selling pressure could push Pi Coin to retest last October’s lows or even set new all-time lows.
Until substantial project progress occurs, Pi Network’s price will remain highly sensitive to market sentiment and supply-demand dynamics. Risk-averse investors should exercise caution.
Venture capital firm a16z Crypto issued a new safety perspective, urging decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols to gradually abandon the long-held “Code is Law” philosophy and adopt “Norms First” design principles to reduce frequent security vulnerabilities. Data shows that over the past year, DeFi suffered attack losses totaling $649 million due to code flaws and contract exploits, with security issues becoming a key bottleneck for industry maturity.
Senior security researcher Daejun Park from a16z Crypto states that current DeFi still relies on a “patch after breach” security model, upgrading or remedying after vulnerabilities are exploited. This approach is no longer sustainable as the industry scales. He emphasizes that protocols should incorporate standardized, enforceable behavioral norms during design, embedding security constraints directly into system logic rather than relying solely on code execution.
“Norms First” involves pre-set invariants and runtime constraints that limit protocol actions. If abnormal patterns or rule violations occur, the system can automatically rollback or halt execution. Park notes that most past exploits deviate from normal behavior, and strong normative mechanisms could have prevented many attacks early.
This discussion is reinforced by multiple high-profile security incidents. Even mature, long-running protocols have not eliminated vulnerabilities, exposing structural flaws in the “code-only” governance approach. Meanwhile, hackers increasingly use AI to scan for contract flaws, raising the security challenge for DeFi.
However, industry experts caution that “Norms First” is not a panacea. Additional runtime checks may increase gas costs and reduce competitiveness. Not all attack vectors can be pre-encoded as rules, especially complex or rare vulnerabilities that may bypass checks.
Nonetheless, more protocols are beginning to incorporate invariants and formal verification tools to improve robustness. Moving from “Code is Law” to “Norms First” is seen as a crucial step toward DeFi’s maturation and attracting long-term capital.
A Bitcoin wallet from the Satoshi era, dormant for 13 years, has suddenly reactivated, attracting high market attention. On-chain data shows this address transferred all 909.38 BTC, worth about $85 million at current prices, to a new address.
Blockchain analytics platform Arkham Intelligence notes that this wallet first received Bitcoin in 2013, when the price per BTC was below $7. The realized return on this investment exceeds 13,900 times. Compared to investing about $6,400 in traditional assets like the S&P 500 index fund at that time, now worth about $37,000, or gold which increased by about 150%, Bitcoin’s long-term performance is striking.
This is not an isolated event. Between 2024 and 2025, multiple long-dormant wallets over ten years old have resumed activity, with total transferred Bitcoin value exceeding $50 billion. Some “veteran” holders are readjusting their portfolios, fueling discussions about early Bitcoin circulation risks.
Analysts believe this transfer does not necessarily mean immediate selling. Funds may be upgrading security, restructuring custody, or preparing for future operations. The key on-chain question is whether these bitcoins will flow into known liquidity channels, impacting prices.
Additionally, potential quantum computing risks are considered a reason for early holders to act. Some early UTXOs with exposed public keys are thought to face higher cryptographic risks in the future. While mainstream views suggest quantum computing is still distant, preemptive asset migration is a choice for some long-term holders.
For investors tracking whale movements, Satoshi-era Bitcoin, and on-chain flows, such events are important for sentiment and structural insights. Short-term markets may remain cautious, and the next moves of these ancient bitcoins warrant ongoing monitoring.
Latest on-chain data shows that new Bitcoin buyers entering the market since November 2024 have experienced two consecutive months of unrealized losses, with about eight weeks of unprofitable positions. This change is significantly affecting market sentiment and short-term price structure.
Analysis indicates that short-term holders—investors who bought within the past 155 days—have an average cost basis above $98,000. The net unrealized profit/loss indicator for these short-term holders remains negative, suggesting overall pressure on new capital. Only if Bitcoin’s price recovers and sustains above approximately $98,000 can these short-term funds regain profitability.
Historically, when Bitcoin successfully breaks above and stabilizes beyond the short-term holder cost basis, it often signals a transition from correction to a sustained upward trend. Therefore, $98,000 is both a psychological and technical resistance level.
Options market data also supports this view. Bullish expectations near $98,000 and higher are rising, and approaching this zone could amplify short-term volatility through hedging activities, potentially accelerating price movements. Previously, near $97,000, Bitcoin experienced a pullback, with a large short squeeze pushing it down to around $92,000.
Despite volatility, daily chart shows higher lows, indicating a gradual upward trend. Some institutional investors are absorbing dips rather than distributing, easing downward pressure.
On macro levels, uncertainties persist. Recent strong rhetoric from Trump on tariffs and geopolitics has increased risk aversion, underperforming traditional safe havens. Tight monetary policy expectations also limit upside potential in the short term.
Currently, Bitcoin stabilizes around $92,000, with traders viewing recent volatility as leverage adjustments rather than trend reversals. For those monitoring on-chain data, short-term holder costs, and price trends, $98,000 remains a critical threshold for market sentiment recovery.
Latest predictions from Polymarket show that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is leading bets for the next Fed Chair, with a probability of 62%. As Chair Powell’s term ends in May 2026, markets generally expect President Trump to favor a more hawkish candidate, making Warsh a focal point.
Public records show Warsh served as Fed Governor from 2006 to 2011, known for supporting relatively high interest rates during the global financial turmoil. He emphasizes controlling inflation, even if it constrains short-term growth. Compared to dovish policymakers focused on stimulus, Warsh is often seen as a hawk.
Changes in Polymarket’s forecast are already influencing market expectations. Analysts believe that if Warsh becomes Fed Chair, U.S. monetary policy may shift toward tightening, with higher interest rates maintained longer. This outlook benefits the dollar but could pressure equity valuations, especially for highly leveraged companies.
In crypto markets, the reaction could be complex. Hawkish Fed expectations often increase volatility in risk assets; Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may face downward pressure. However, in the medium to long term, persistent inflation could lead some investors to view crypto as an inflation hedge, creating divergent price paths.
It is important to note that while the Fed is institutionally independent, past Chair nominations are closely tied to presidential economic policies. Warsh’s leading position on Polymarket reflects not only his background but also market re-pricing of future U.S. monetary policy.
As 2026 approaches, discussions around “Fed Chair prediction,” “Kevin Warsh’s stance,” and “Trump’s monetary policy” are expected to intensify. Regardless of the final outcome, current expectations are already influencing global financial and crypto markets, warranting ongoing attention.
Crypto infrastructure firm BitMine Immersion Technologies is further expanding its long-term Ethereum holdings. Recent disclosures show BitMine has invested approximately $277.5 million in ETH staking, increasing its total staked ETH value to about $5.66 billion. The company’s total ETH assets are close to $13 billion, with a significant portion locked in staking.
Strategically, BitMine’s choice to stake rather than sell ETH reflects strong confidence in ETH’s long-term value. Ethereum staking allows holders to earn continuous yields without reducing their position, providing stable cash flow and avoiding large-scale sell-offs that could impact market prices. Since staked ETH is locked during the staking period, it also reduces the risk of sudden market dumps.
This aligns with Tom Lee’s consistent emphasis on long-term allocation. Compared to short-term trading, BitMine focuses on compound growth and network participation, actively contributing to Ethereum’s security and operation rather than being a passive holder.
From supply-demand perspective, large institutional staking reduces the circulating supply of ETH. As available supply decreases and demand remains stable or increases, it can support prices over the medium to long term. Recent longer validator queue times also reflect sustained staking demand and increased network activity. More ETH locked on-chain enhances network security and stability.
Overall, BitMine’s move is seen as a sign of growing institutional confidence in ETH. Ethereum is increasingly viewed as a productive and yield-generating digital asset, not just a speculative tool. For institutions, staking meets both income and long-term portfolio goals.
Market expectations suggest that similar enterprise ETH staking cases may continue to grow into 2026, further solidifying Ethereum’s core position in the global crypto asset ecosystem and reinforcing its role as a foundational financial infrastructure.
As Trump’s tariff rhetoric escalates again, global markets remain tense. Tuesday morning, U.S. stock futures declined collectively amid fears that Trump’s latest tariff threats regarding Greenland could trigger a new trade conflict escalation.
Futures data indicate that the Dow Jones Industrial Average might open down about 630 points; S&P 500 futures forecast a drop of 93 points (~1.3%); Nasdaq futures could fall about 405 points (~1.6%). These figures quickly increased market concern over “Trump’s tariff impact on US stocks.”
On the news front, Trump recently stated on Truth Social that if some NATO members continue opposing U.S. actions on Greenland, their exports to the U.S. will face phased tariffs. He said tariffs could start on February 1, 2026, at 10%, rising to 25% in June. This move is seen as a pressure tactic on Europe.
Trump also singled out France and the UK, threatening tariffs on French wine and champagne, and criticizing the UK’s stance on overseas territories. European officials responded strongly, calling the measures “unacceptable,” and discussed using EU-level economic countermeasures. These developments caused notable volatility in European auto and luxury stocks.
In the U.S., investors are digesting these risks after the Martin Luther King holiday. Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid noted that, due to the recent market closure, the tariff impact has not fully reflected in prices. If rhetoric escalates further, volatility could increase.
Some firms remain cautiously optimistic. Jeff Kilburg, CEO of KKM Financial, believes that if stocks sharply decline due to tariff fears, it could create a buying window for medium-term funds, shifting market focus toward earnings season.
Meanwhile, Trump plans to discuss tariffs and Greenland-related issues with European leaders during the Davos World Economic Forum in Switzerland. Market watchers are closely monitoring whether negotiations can ease trade tensions.
Amid multiple geopolitical and policy factors, topics like “Trump tariffs impact on US stocks” and “Dow Jones forecast” continue to heat up, with markets expected to stay highly sensitive in the short term.
Hong Kong Securities and Futures Professionals Association (HKSFPA) publicly opposes the regulator’s proposal to remove the “exemption threshold” for Type 9 asset management firms managing virtual assets, arguing that requiring funds with just 1% Bitcoin exposure to apply for full virtual asset management licenses would impose disproportionate compliance costs and discourage traditional asset managers from exploring crypto assets. The association also criticizes the proposed requirement that assets be held only through licensed custodians, which could restrict Web3 venture capital fund operations, and calls for flexible arrangements like self-custody and offshore custody.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen is skeptical about the EU’s ability to respond swiftly to Trump’s “Greenland tariffs.” She predicts that rather than quick action, the EU is more likely to establish a so-called “Terrible European Working Group.”
Yellen suggests that this 27-member group has low decision-making efficiency, which could hinder effective countermeasures or the use of its strongest trade tool—the so-called “Counter-Coercion Tool.”
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Yellen sarcastically told a small group of reporters: “I think they will first establish that ‘Terrible European Working Group,’ which seems to be their most powerful weapon.” This indicates that Washington does not seriously consider the EU deploying its strongest trade weapon, which could restrict U.S. companies from entering the EU single market.
On other issues, Yellen said the next Fed Chair is unlikely to be announced during Trump’s visit to Switzerland. “I think it will be next week,” she said, implying the government plans to announce the decision before the end of January.
Following Trump’s latest tariff remarks, risk aversion increased, and Bitcoin briefly dropped below $91,000. Data from on-chain derivatives markets show traders’ expectations for Bitcoin’s future have weakened, with options markets pricing in deeper downside risks.
Data from decentralized derivatives protocol Derive.xyz indicates traders believe there is a 30% chance Bitcoin will fall below $80,000 before June 2026. Derive supports on-chain options, perpetual swaps, and structured products, serving as an important window into market sentiment. Lead researcher Shawn Dawson states that the options skew is clearly downward, with only about a 19% chance of Bitcoin exceeding $120,000 in that period.
Options are essentially price bets, allowing investors to hedge or speculate on future price ranges by paying premiums. Currently, demand for put options is rising sharply, reflecting growing concern about Bitcoin’s short- to medium-term trajectory. This “crowdsourced” probability assessment is viewed as a forward-looking risk indicator.
If Bitcoin truly falls below $80, it would mark a new low since April 2025, when Trump’s tariffs on multiple countries caused intense market volatility, briefly pushing Bitcoin near $75,000. Similar macro uncertainties have re-emerged recently. Trump’s weekend threats to impose 10% tariffs on imports from 10 European countries over Greenland-related political disputes have quickly suppressed risk assets.
Dawson notes that escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Europe increase the likelihood of a return to high volatility, which is not yet fully reflected in spot prices. The options market remains in a negative skew, indicating a higher demand for downside protection in the near term.
Additionally, open interest in put options with strike prices around $75,000–$80,000 has increased significantly, showing some funds are preparing for Bitcoin to retreat to the mid-$70,000s. For investors tracking Bitcoin forecasts, options data, and macro risks, current derivatives signals warrant close attention.