Bitcoin new buyers experience consecutive months of unrealized losses: $98,000 becomes the dividing line between bulls and bears, as the market awaits a key breakthrough

January 20 News, the latest on-chain data shows that since November 2024, new Bitcoin buyers entering the market have been in a loss for two consecutive months, with unrealized loss cycles lasting approximately eight weeks. This change is significantly impacting market sentiment and short-term price structure.

Blockchain data analysis indicates that short-term holders—investors who bought Bitcoin within the past 155 days—currently have an average cost concentrated above $98,000. The net unrealized profit and loss indicator for these short-term holders remains in negative territory, suggesting that overall new capital is still under pressure. Analysts believe that only when Bitcoin’s price re-establishes and sustains above approximately $98,000 can short-term funds potentially return to profitability.

Historically, when Bitcoin’s price successfully breaks above and stabilizes above the short-term holder cost basis, it often signals a transition from a correction phase to a more sustained upward trend. Therefore, $98,000 is not only a psychological threshold but also a key resistance level in the current structure.

Derivatives data further reinforce this view. Market expectations for bullish movement near $98,000 and higher have noticeably increased. Once the price approaches this zone, hedging activities may amplify short-term volatility, accelerating market movements. Previously, Bitcoin experienced a pullback near $97,000, followed by a large-scale long liquidation, with the price briefly dropping to around $92,000.

Despite the volatility, daily chart analysis shows that Bitcoin continues to maintain a pattern of gradually rising lows. Some institutional funds have chosen to absorb chips during the pullback rather than distribute, which somewhat alleviates downward pressure.

On a macro level, uncertainty remains amplified. Recent strong statements from Trump regarding tariffs and geopolitical issues have weighed on global risk appetite, causing crypto assets to underperform relative to traditional safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, expectations of a tight monetary policy persist, with new liquidity yet to materialize, limiting Bitcoin’s short-term upside potential.

Currently, Bitcoin is stabilizing around $92,000. Traders generally view recent volatility as leverage adjustment rather than a trend reversal. For investors focusing on on-chain data, Bitcoin short-term holder costs, and price trends, $98,000 remains a critical threshold for determining whether market sentiment can recover.