Options Market Warning: The probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 before the end of June has increased to 30%, with downside risks intensifying

On January 20, news reports indicated that following US President Trump’s latest tariff remarks, market risk aversion sentiments were triggered, and Bitcoin’s price temporarily fell below $91,000. Recent data from the on-chain derivatives market shows that traders’ expectations for Bitcoin’s future price movements over the coming months have significantly weakened, and the options market has begun pricing in deeper downside risks.

Data from decentralized derivatives protocol Derive.xyz indicates that traders believe there is up to a 30% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $80,000 before the end of June 2026. The platform supports on-chain options, perpetual contracts, and structured products, and is regarded as an important window into market sentiment. Dr. Shawn Dawson, Head of Research at Derive.xyz, stated that the options structure has clearly tilted downward, with only about a 19% probability of Bitcoin rising above $120,000 during the same period.

Options are essentially a price betting tool that allows investors to hedge risks or take directional positions on future prices by paying an option premium. Currently, demand for put options has risen significantly, reflecting growing market concerns about Bitcoin’s short- to medium-term trend. This probabilistic judgment, formed through collective trader input, is also viewed as a forward-looking risk indicator.

If Bitcoin truly falls below $80,000, it will mark a new low since April 2025. At that time, Trump imposed tariffs on multiple countries’ goods, triggering intense volatility in global financial markets, and Bitcoin briefly dipped to around $75,000. Similar macro uncertainties have recently re-emerged. Over the weekend, Trump threatened to impose a 10% tariff on imports from 10 European countries, citing political disagreements related to Greenland, and these remarks quickly suppressed the performance of risk assets.

Dawson pointed out that escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe are increasing the likelihood of the market re-entering a high-volatility cycle, and this risk has not yet been fully reflected in spot prices. From the perspective of options structure, the skew remains in negative territory, indicating a more urgent need for downside protection in the short term.

Additionally, in Derive and other derivatives markets, the open interest in put options with strike prices concentrated between $75,000 and $80,000 has increased significantly, showing that some funds have begun to pre-position for Bitcoin falling back to the mid-$70,000 range. For investors interested in Bitcoin price forecasts, Bitcoin options data, and macro risks affecting the crypto market, current derivatives signals warrant close attention.