Wintermute: To escape the crypto market dilemma, ETFs need to expand investment scope, with leading assets driving gains and attracting retail investor attention back

BlockBeats News, January 19 — Wintermute released a recent article stating that 2025 did not bring the expected market rally, but it may be seen as the beginning of cryptocurrencies shifting from a speculative asset to a more mature asset class. The traditional four-year cycle pattern is failing. Market performance is no longer dominated by self-fulfilling narrative timelines but depends on the flow of liquidity and the focus of investor attention.

In 2025, there was no outflow of funds from Bitcoin to Ethereum, and then transmitted to the altcoin market. As retail interest shifted to the stock market, 2025 became a year of extreme centralization. The average rebound cycle for altcoins shortened to 20 days (from 60 days in 2024). A few leading assets absorbed the vast majority of new funds, while the broader market struggled. To break through the limitations of leading assets, at least one of the following three conditions must occur:

· ETFs and digital asset trust funds expand investment scope

· Leading assets like BTC, ETH strongly lead the rally

· Retail investor attention (from stock markets, etc.) returns

The final outcome will depend on whether these catalysts can truly expand liquidity beyond a few major assets or if market centralization continues to intensify. Understanding the potential capital flows and the structural changes needed will determine the market dynamics of 2026.