Despite the Dip, Bitcoin Just Flashed Its Most Reliable Bullish Signal: Analysis

In brief

• Bitcoin confirmed a “golden cross” pattern on the charts yesterday, which traders widely interpret as a reliable bullish sign.
• A golden cross is when the short-term moving average crosses above the longer-term average, suggesting positive momentum.
• Prediction markets see Bitcoin hitting $100K, but not necessarily a new all-time high any time soon.

For traders who study charts, there’s one “golden” pattern they love to see—and Bitcoin just flashed it, suggesting a recovery could be on the way. The rest of the crypto market, though, didn’t get the memo. Over 95% of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap have posted losses in the past 24 hours, and the total crypto market has slipped to $3.23 trillion. Even Bitcoin today is down roughly 1.3%, despite the bullish “golden cross” formation being painted on the charts. 

Traditional markets, meanwhile, offered some cover. The S&P 500 closed higher Thursday after two losing sessions, lifted by strong earnings from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Taiwan Semiconductor’s blockbuster results sent semiconductor shares higher. The Russell 2000 hit a fresh all-time high, extending its winning streak against the S&P 500 to nine consecutive sessions. That’s the longest since 1990. Risk appetite isn’t dead. Bitcoin and the Golden Cross: Here’s what just happened The price of Bitcoin has entered what traders call a “golden cross.” A golden cross occurs when a shorter-term moving average crosses above a longer-term one. Traders typically watch the 50-day average crossing above the 200-day as the textbook signal. It tells you that recent price momentum is outpacing the broader trend. In plain English: The market is gaining steam. Bitcoin has a solid track record with this pattern. The September 2023 golden cross led to a 148% rally. September 2024 delivered 64%. The April-August 2025 formation produced a 35% gain. History doesn’t guarantee anything, but it often rhymes. Yesterday’s confirmation came after Bitcoin recovered from a bearish movement that drove the price from $125,000 to $80,000 back in November. The short-term EMA now sits slightly above the longer-term line, which in technical analysis is considered a bullish configuration.

Bitcoin currently trades below $95,000, down 1.3% on the day after testing an intraday high near $97,200. It’s up 5.4% in the last seven days.

Bitcoin (BTC) price data. Image: Tradingview

The Average Directional Index, or ADX, for Bitcoin sits at 33.5. ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings above 25 tell traders that momentum is real, not just noise. Readings below 20 typically signal choppy, directionless action where false breakouts are common. At 33.5, traders would say Bitcoin has a confirmed trend momentum. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index, or RSI, reads 63. RSI measures buying versus selling pressure, likewise on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings above 70 typically signal overbought conditions where profit-taking becomes more likely. Readings below 30 suggest oversold territory where bargain hunters step in. At 63, Bitcoin sits in bullish territory without approaching the danger zone. There’s still room to run before traders start heading for the exits. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows that the coin is already moving up after a long compression zone (see the “+” signs in the graph above). When the Squeeze is on, volatility is compressing, coiling like a spring. When it turns off, the spring releases and a directional move begins. The positive momentum reading suggests that the move is skewing bullish. The exponential moving average, or EMA, configuration confirms the trend. The 50-period EMA trades above the 200-period. The current price of BTC sits above both. When short-term averages stack above longer-term ones with price on top, traders call this a “bullish alignment.” It typically signals that short-term trading momentum favors the bulls. However, there have been brief periods of time in which a crossing happens and the trend is not confirmed in the long term—like the cross between October 1 and October 13 last year. Bitcoin still has some work to do before everyone starts tweeting about lambos again. If this cross is invalidated, then the EMA50 would turn into a weak support. The $98,000 level proved millimetrically strong as resistance, perfectly aligned with a Fibonacci retracement drawn from the all-time high near $126,000 to the recent bottom. Bitcoin touched it and retreated. The psychological $100,000 mark looms directly above, creating what traders call a “double whammy of resistance.” Technical and psychological barriers converging at nearly the same price. On Myriad, the prediction market built by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, traders are increasingly bullish on Bitcoin’s near-term prospects. The odds of BTC hitting $100,000 before dumping to $69,000 stand at 86.7%, up from 63% on January 1. That’s a dramatic shift in sentiment in just two weeks.

But a separate market betting on whether Bitcoin hits a new all-time high before July shows 73.4% odds for “no.” In other words, the market sees Bitcoin reclaiming six figures as likely but breaking the $126,000 record? That’s a different conversation. This creates an interesting setup. The technicals support continued upside. The golden cross in play. Trend strength is validated. Momentum is rising. But the consensus seems to be that this rally has a ceiling somewhere between here and the old highs. If you’re a trader who wants to reconcile these perspectives (technical and sentiment analysis), it seems like the play is to be short-term bullish, long-term cautious and see what happens when Bitcoin tests the $100K zone. Key Levels to Watch

• Resistance:

  • $98,000 (Fibonacci/immediate)
  • $100,000 (psychological)
  • $108,757 (next Fib level)

• Support:

  • $91,353 (strong)
  • $89,000 (high volume low)
  • $80,601 (breakdown level)

Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.