Trump claims "Venezuelan leaker" jailed, Polymarket account activity suddenly halts triggers prediction market warning
On January 16, the U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the so-called “Venezuela leaker” has been arrested and imprisoned. Recently, some accounts on the Polymarket platform placed concentrated bets hours before the announcement of the Venezuela situation, drawing widespread attention. This incident has once again brought the transparency and regulation issues of prediction markets into focus.
According to Lookonchain analysis, among the three main wallets involved in betting on the ousting of Venezuelan President Maduro, two accounts have had no activity in the past 11 days, including the account “0xa72DB1,” which previously bet that Maduro would step down before January 31, 2026, turning a wager of about $5,800 into approximately $75,000. Another active account, “SBet365,” placed a bet again two days ago, predicting that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would step down before January 31, and had previously profited about $140,000 by betting on the Venezuela situation.
Analysts point out that the sudden halt in activity of these accounts may be related to the announcement of the event and market regulatory pressure, also reflecting the potential risks of prediction markets in political event betting. Sean Patrick Maloney, President of the Prediction Market Alliance, emphasized that regulated platforms within the United States must strictly enforce “Know Your Customer” (KYC) policies to prevent insider trading and market manipulation. He warned investors that operating on unregistered offshore platforms in the U.S. involves legal and compliance risks.
Overall, this incident not only highlights the high risks of decentralized prediction platforms like Polymarket in political betting but also reveals that investors participating in political forecasts should pay attention to market regulation and legal compliance. Trump’s statement and the account activity may temporarily influence related market sentiment, and investors should adopt cautious strategies to manage risks appropriately.