Podcast Ep.349ㅡ "Bitcoin Foreign Exchange Reserves" Era is About to Begin?……U.S. and Europe Actions Officially Underway

Today's TokenPost podcast focuses on the trend of Bitcoin being included in national strategic assets and the changes it may trigger in the market structure. Notably, since former President Donald Trump issued the Executive Order on Strategic Bitcoin Reserves (SBR) in 2025, actions from major countries have been clearly visible, and structural demand is in full swing.

Currently, the number of Bitcoins held by governments around the world is about 520,000, accounting for 2.5% of the total supply. The United States has issued an executive order mandating that criminal or civil confiscated assets be managed by the Treasury Department as reserves and has been recognized as the largest sovereign holder holding approximately 325,000 to 328,000 Bitcoins. In addition, the BITCOIN bill proposed by the Senate aims to purchase 1 million BITCOIN (about 5% of the total issuance) over the next five years.

Such movements are not limited to the United States. El Salvador has adopted Bitcoin as legal tender and holds 7,475 to 7,500 Bitcoins; Bhutan has been mining Bitcoin through its own funds since 2019 and has now accumulated more than 15,000 coins. The Brazilian Chamber of Deputies is considering a bill to allocate up to 5% of foreign exchange reserves to Bitcoin; The Czech Republic is reported to have officially announced plans to allocate some of its central bank assets to Bitcoin in January 2025. Switzerland is also preparing for a referendum on including Bitcoin in foreign exchange reserves.

On the supply side, it is expected that by the 2028 halving, about 700,000 new bitcoins will be issued, but national and institutional demand is expected to exceed 1 million. Analysts pointed out that the stock on the exchange has dropped to 2.5 million, a five-year low, and ETF and institutional buying has exceeded the new supply. Especially if the US “BITCOIN Act” is passed and a 200,000-coin purchase plan is launched, the supply pressure is expected to further intensify.

Such imbalances in supply and demand could have medium- to long-term implications for BTC prices. The report distinguishes between bull, benchmark, and bear scenarios for prices in 2026. The benchmark scenario (50% probability) gives a forecast of $80,000 to $120,000 based on the premise that the ETF will inflow $3,000 to $400 billion and 1 to 2 countries will introduce reserves; The bull scenario (30%) believes that the price could rise to $170,000.

TokenPost sees this situation as a turning point for Bitcoin to enter the foreign exchange reserve level strategic asset. In particular, the policy decisions of Brazil and core European countries may become an opportunity to promote the status of digital assets to be institutional assets. There is also the possibility of a liquidity crisis on the supply and demand side of the market, and supply shortages may lead to structural price pressure. The market capitalization multiplier effect of government purchases and institutional capital inflows may also trigger asset revaluation beyond short-term demand.

This report can be interpreted as a signal announcing the beginning of the era of national strategic holding of BITCOIN, and the focus to be paid attention to in the future includes whether the BITCOIN Act is passed, the legislative results of European countries, and the maintenance level of exchange liquidity.