Trading Time: Bitcoin "Rebound and Peak" Signal Emerges? 98% Chance of Decisive Battle at the $100,000 Key Threshold

Daily Market Highlights and Trend Analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Recently, the spot silver price soared to over $93 per ounce, reaching a historic high, causing its cost share in solar panels to jump from 3.4% in 2023 to 29%, forcing manufacturers to raise prices and seek alternative materials. However, after the Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals including silver, silver prices retreated from the high. Meanwhile, the demand outlook for another key industrial metal, copper, has been reassessed. Chip giant NVIDIA quietly corrected a major error in a technical report, reducing the copper requirement for a gigawatt-scale data center from an exaggerated 500,000 tons to 200 tons, significantly easing previous market fears of severe copper shortages due to AI development. This correction aligns with views from institutions like Goldman Sachs, which noted that the copper market has entered a surplus phase and forecasted prices could retreat to around $11,000 per ton by year-end. Despite adjustments in resource consumption expectations, the strong momentum in the AI sector remains, with chip manufacturer TSMC releasing better-than-expected earnings and significantly raising its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $52-56 billion.

Bitcoin briefly rebounded to a two-month high of $97,500 at the start of the new year, approaching $98,000, and is currently consolidating around $96,000. Several analysts have expressed differing views: Analyst Murphy believes that his exclusive indicator “Bitcoin Risk Signal” has dropped from 100 to 0, indicating a “top of the rebound” rather than the “start of a bull market.” Glassnode pointed out that whether the market can hold above $98,300, the short-term holder cost basis, is key to trend reversal; although long-term selling pressure has eased, spot market buying power has yet to form sustained accumulation. Michaël van de Poppe is relatively optimistic, believing that even a pullback to $93,000 is not a concern, and expects a breakthrough above $100,000 in February. Trader Ted observed large sell orders worth $232 million in the $97,000 to $100,000 range. CryptoQuant data shows that during price rebounds, short-term holders take profits, while whale addresses increased their holdings by 46,000 BTC this week. Overall, the market consensus is that although institutional inflows via spot ETFs are positive signals, retail interest remains low; Bitcoin needs to effectively break through $98,000 with sustained spot demand to firmly advance toward $100,000.

Ethereum price touched $3,400 and entered consolidation, with analysts divided on its future trend. Analyst Lennaert Snyder proposed three trading strategies: he focuses on long opportunities after liquidity is gained below $3,270, or chasing longs after breaking above $3,450 with a target of $3,600. Man of Bitcoin believes that as long as Ethereum holds above the key support of $3,191, new highs are possible. However, analyst Sean Rose from Glassnode pointed out that although Ethereum’s price outperformed Bitcoin, its realized profit/loss ratio (SOPR) remains below 1, indicating relatively weak holder confidence. CryptoQuant analyst Pelin Ay analyzed from a leverage perspective, suggesting that the current high leverage ratio near 0.60 often signals, after a brief shakeout, a 10% to 25% price increase, potentially pushing Ethereum to $4,100. Meanwhile, Hyblock data shows significant long liquidations in the $3,040 to $3,100 range, increasing the likelihood of a short-term correction to that zone.

Due to X platform (formerly Twitter) updating developer policies to combat AI spam, banning “InfoFi” reward posting apps, Kaito announced it will shut down its “Yaps” incentive model and transition to “Kaito Studio,” a platform for professional creators; this caused KAITO token to drop over 20%. On-chain data shows that the team-related address transferred large amounts to exchanges 7 days before the announcement, raising suspicion of “pre-knowledge of negative news and offloading.” Additionally, after Binance Alpha launched “Xueqiu” yesterday, its market cap approached $90 million, and meme tokens with dividend modes surged significantly. (Note: Content for reference only, not investment advice, please conduct your own research.)

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, January 16)

(Data sources: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $95,627.2 (+9.1% YTD), daily spot trading volume $55 billion
• Ethereum: $3,310.38 (+11.1% YTD), daily spot trading volume $26.6 billion
• Fear & Greed Index: 49 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 59.1%, ETH 12.4%
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH, BARD, IP
• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 50.39% / 49.61%
• Sector Gains/Losses: Crypto sector down for two consecutive days, DePIN sector led declines with over 4%

24-hour liquidation data: a total of 96,842 traders liquidated, with total liquidation amounting to $229 million, including $60.86 million in BTC, $39.36 million in ETH, and $6.78 million in DASH.

3. ETF Flows (as of January 15)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$100 million, net inflow for 4 consecutive days
• Ethereum ETF: +$164 million, net inflow for 4 days
• XRP ETF: +$17.06 million
• SOL ETF: +$8.94 million

4. Today’s Preview

• Binance Alpha to launch RollX (ROLL) on January 16
• Binance to stop supporting certain network token deposits and withdrawals on January 16
• Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock approximately 92.65 million tokens at 9 PM Beijing time on January 16, representing 1.86% of circulating supply, worth about $19.2 million;
• deBridge (DBR) to unlock about 618 million tokens at 8 AM Beijing time on January 17, representing 14.81% of circulating supply, worth about $11.6 million;
• ZKsync (ZK) to unlock approximately 173 million tokens at 4 PM Beijing time on January 17, representing 3.16% of circulating supply, worth about $5.9 million.

Top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap with the largest gains today: River +68%, Dash +12%, Chiliz +8.9%, Pump.fun +7.2%, MemeCore +5.8%.

5. Hot News

• An independent miner successfully mined block 932,373, earning a block reward of 3.157 BTC
• Gemini co-founder Winklevoss brothers still hold $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin
• A whale converted 323.26 BTC into 9,240.6 ETH again
• Kaito team transferred 5 million KAITO to Binance 7 days ago, suspected of “pre-knowledge of negative news and offloading”
• BitMine expects its ETH holdings to generate $400 million annually, with potential 10x returns on investments in MrBeast
• Sentient released tokenomics: community activities and airdrops account for 44%
• Interactive Brokers launched 24/7 USDC deposit service, planning to add RLUSD and PYUSD options next week
• Polygon laid off nearly 30% of staff after acquisition to accelerate transition to stablecoin payment business
• X canceled post rewards and banned “InfoFi” apps from incentivized posting to attract users
• Ripple invested $150 million in LMAX to promote RLUSD stablecoin settlement in institutional markets
• CME to launch ADA, LINK, and XLM futures on February 9
• BNB completed its 34th quarterly burn, destroying over 1.37 million tokens
• Binance Alpha launched Xueqiu and Life K-line
• MetaMask officially integrated Tron network, supporting native TRX and USDT operations