Forecast market data shows: the probability of Iran's Supreme Leader stepping down by 2026 has risen to 65%, with political risks significantly increasing.

January 14 News, as social unrest and economic crises continue to intensify, market forecasts regarding Iran’s political prospects have shifted noticeably towards pessimism. Multiple prediction contracts indicate that the probability of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stepping down or being deposed before the end of 2026 has risen to approximately 65%, a significant jump from the end of last year.

Overall, in the Polymarket related contracts, the probability of Ali Khamenei leaving office before December 31 has rapidly increased from about 30% at the end of December last year to nearly 65%. Breakdown by specific time points shows a 24% chance of stepping down before January 31, 46% before March 31, and further rising to 53% before June 30, reflecting the market’s ongoing pricing of short-term political instability.

In general, another prediction platform, Kalshi, also shows a similar trend, with data indicating about a 66% chance of Ali Khamenei leaving office before 2027, significantly higher than the approximately 30% level a few weeks ago. The synchronized changes in these two major prediction markets are seen as important signals for international investors and observers assessing the risk of the Iran situation.

From a fundamental perspective, Iran is facing multiple pressures domestically. According to publicly available information, recent large-scale protests have resulted in hundreds of deaths and thousands of arrests. Economically, Iran’s inflation rate has reached 45%, its local currency, the rial, continues to depreciate, and prices for basic necessities such as meat and cooking oil have soared, significantly increasing the burden on ordinary citizens.

Meanwhile, US-led sanctions targeting Iran’s nuclear program, combined with longstanding issues of corruption and governance, have further strained Iran’s economy. US President Trump recently publicly warned that if protesters are killed, the US may take military action, and hinted that countries trading with Iran could face a 25% tariff on the US.

Although Iran has an elected parliament, Ali Khamenei, who has been in power for over 36 years, still holds ultimate authority over military, diplomatic, and internal affairs. Overall, the high-probability judgments currently given by prediction markets highlight that Iran’s political uncertainty in 2026 is becoming an important variable in global macro and geopolitical risk assessments.