Global M2 money supply reaches $114.6 trillion... down 1.18% from the previous week

Global M2 supply decreased compared to the previous week, and the short-term liquidity expansion trend has temporarily paused.

According to Biometrics statistics, as of January 12, the global M2 supply was $114.6115 trillion, down about 1.18% from $115.9775 trillion the previous week. The globally moderate recovery trend in M2 has encountered a short-term adjustment, and the momentum of liquidity growth has temporarily slowed.

The cumulative change rate over the past 7 weeks is -1.41%. This figure has shifted from the previous week’s 1.75% to a negative value, indicating that short-term liquidity has entered an adjustment phase. The previous recovery momentum has temporarily stalled, and the inflow of funds has weakened.

Year-over-year growth rate is 9.30%. This is a decline from the previous week’s 10.91%, suggesting that the pace of liquidity expansion on an annual basis has slightly slowed. Although the global monetary environment remains accommodative, the expansion speed shows signs of fatigue.

In summary, global M2 has decreased compared to the previous week, entering a short-term adjustment phase. The cumulative short-term increase has turned negative, and the year-over-year growth rate has also slightly slowed, with the expansion trend temporarily weakening. However, the year-over-year increase remains around 9%, which should be interpreted as a temporary adjustment rather than a sharp contraction of liquidity. This indicates that short-term volatility may increase, but from a medium-term perspective, the liquidity foundation for risk assets, including Bitcoin, remains solid.

Bitcoin: 1+ Year HODL Wave / Bitcoin Magazine Professional Edition

Given that market shocks, large-scale profit-taking, ETF and corporate investment expansion, and other factors can all influence price formation, it is necessary to pay attention to auxiliary variables such as market overheating or selling pressure in addition to liquidity indicators.

The MVRV Z-score is 1.19, down from 1.29 the previous week. Although still within the neutral range (0~2), it can be interpreted as confirming the rebalancing after a short-term adjustment, rather than entering an overheating phase.

The 1+ Year HODL Wave indicator is 59.25%, slightly down from 59.43% the previous week. In the total supply of Bitcoin, the proportion of holdings that have not moved for over a year remains high, but some long-term holdings are gradually shifting.

Nevertheless, this indicator remains at 59%, indicating that the supply constraint effect of long-term holders is still effective. This suggests that even during short-term price fluctuations, the structural long- and medium-term holding tendencies have not been seriously compromised.

The US cryptocurrency spot ETF market shows signs of a gradual rebound during the short-term adjustment phase. After continuous net outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, both have resumed inflows, signaling a easing in supply and demand.

As of the 12th (local time), the US Bitcoin spot ETF experienced a net inflow of $116.67 million in a single day, after 4 trading days. On the same day, Ethereum spot ETF also saw a net inflow of $5.04 million after 3 days, indicating signs of breaking away from the weak trend.