As Bitcoin approaches the upper boundary of a two-month trading range, traders on Kalshi are actively pricing in the likelihood of BTC breaking through the important psychological threshold of $100,000 before the end of January 2026. As of January 13th, the market estimates a 34% probability of Bitcoin reaching six figures this month.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $94,435, up 3.3% in the past 24 hours, supported by December CPI data showing a 2.7% increase year-over-year. This figure aligns with expectations and reinforces the belief that the Federal Reserve can continue its gradual easing policy—an macroeconomic environment generally favorable for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Although the $100,000 mark is not certain, the market appears more confident about medium-term targets, with a 52% chance of Bitcoin reaching $97,500 this month. Expectations for Bitcoin to surpass $100,000 increase further in February and March, as the current price is only about 6% away from this milestone.
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