Podcast Ep.338ㅡVenezuela reportedly holds up to 660,000 BTC… Will it affect Bitcoin's price?

In early 2026, one of the biggest waves in the cryptocurrency market could be Venezuela’s massive Bitcoin reserves holding up to 660,000 BTC. This claim originates from a recent report related to intelligence agencies and is believed to potentially have a significant impact on the macro supply structure and market psychology of Bitcoin L1 assets.

The report states that the Venezuelan government may have accumulated Bitcoin through undisclosed channels over many years, with an estimated scale of up to 660,000 BTC, worth approximately $67 billion at current market prices. This far exceeds the holdings of major companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla, and is comparable to sovereign wealth funds. If true, it would become the largest single-country holding case.

However, this claim has not yet been officially verified, and no on-chain wallets have been identified as definitively owned by the state. Given Bitcoin’s decentralized nature, even if there are government-controlled holdings, it is difficult to prove legally, and such information should be regarded as unconfirmed intelligence-based speculation. Nevertheless, the market remains attentive to the potential impact of this massive holding rumor.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s total supply is fixed at 21 million coins, and large-scale holders’ willingness to sell could cause rapid changes in circulating supply. Especially as Bitcoin’s price continues to consolidate within a range in 2026, such supply-side variables could significantly influence market participants’ psychology.

The report analyzes three price scenarios. First is the pessimistic scenario: if this portion of BTC is transferred to exchanges and sold off in reality. In markets with low liquidity, oversupply could lead to short-term sharp declines. Second is the neutral scenario: due to political or legal restrictions, this asset may remain frozen and unused for a long time. In this case, the market is more likely to show limited fluctuations, continuously reflecting potential risk factors rather than immediate price volatility. Lastly is the optimistic scenario: if the holdings shift to strategic reserves, with some countries or major institutions, like the US Bitcoin reserve, incorporating this BTC into their system, the reduction in circulating supply could trigger medium- to long-term price increases.

In other words, the possibility that the circulating BTC could significantly decrease itself might have a long-term positive impact on prices.

Alea Research and other Bitcoin analysis organizations point out that the current market remains sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical variables. Therefore, large-scale holdings transfer and other supply-side shocks could become global events that disrupt existing forecasts.

Ultimately, the key still lies in whether this portion of BTC truly exists and how these assets will actually be deployed. Since the Bitcoin system allows assets to move between wallets without public access, it is difficult to draw definitive conclusions based solely on speculation. However, if these rumors are confirmed, the Bitcoin market could witness an unprecedented transformation in its supply structure.

Can Bitcoin transcend being merely “digital gold” and evolve into a productive asset with a healthy supply and demand balance?