Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on Iran's trading partners, as the US-China trade truce faces new challenges

The latest tariff signals released by U.S. President Trump once again cast a shadow over the already fragile US-China trade relations. In early 2026, Trump announced that a 25% import tariff would be imposed on all countries engaged in trade with Iran, emphasizing that the measure would take effect immediately. This statement quickly sparked market concerns that the US-China trade agreement might be undermined.

Overall, this move directly touches on China, a key variable. China is Iran’s largest trading partner and one of the world’s biggest importers of crude oil. Previously, in October last year, the US and China reached a temporary trade truce, with the US suspending some punitive tariffs on China, and China signaling a relaxation regarding restrictions on rare earth exports, cooling bilateral relations. However, a new round of tariff threats is believed to be weakening this hard-won balance.

China has explicitly stated its opposition. The Chinese Embassy in the US said it firmly opposes any form of illegal unilateral sanctions and “long-arm jurisdiction,” and reserves the right to take countermeasures. Several trade policy experts pointed out that if the 25% tariff is actually implemented, it would constitute a significant upgrade to the current tariff system and could trigger a chain reaction.

From an energy trade perspective, China has long imported crude oil from Iran, which plays an important role in supporting Iran’s economy. Data shows that Iran’s crude oil exports to China have increased significantly over the past few years. Although under US sanctions pressure, China’s imports from Iran have declined for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, energy cooperation has not been interrupted. Academia generally believes that Beijing will not proactively adjust its strategic cooperation with Iran due to tariff threats.

In summary, Trump’s tariff strategy appears more like a form of high-pressure leverage rather than a systematic trade negotiation plan. Analysts believe that before the anticipated high-level talks, both China and the US may once again enter a “talk and pressure” game, involving multiple areas such as tariffs, technology, and energy, with many uncertainties.

In the context of a highly sensitive global economy, such tariff actions not only affect bilateral trade but may also impact commodity markets and macro risk expectations. Whether tariffs will be truly implemented in the future, and whether the US and China can maintain the trade truce framework, remain to be seen.