Bitcoin to reach $2.9 million in 2050? VanEck reveals "these 2 major prerequisites"

Asset management firm VanEck has released a research report indicating that if Bitcoin can become a trade settlement tool and reserve asset within the next 25 years, it is expected that by 2050, the price could surpass 2.9 million USD. This analysis report titled “Long-term Capital Market Assumptions for Bitcoin,” was co-authored by VanEck Digital Asset Research Head Matthew Sigel and Senior Analyst Patrick Bush. The paper proposes a “Base Case” valuation model, estimating that over the next 25 years, Bitcoin’s annualized return will remain stable at around 15%. It is worth noting that VanEck’s report is not a price prediction or a call for prices, but rather a valuation calculation based on long-term adoption assumptions. The core question is: if Bitcoin’s role shifts from a trading asset to part of the global financial system, what would its value be? Unlike traditional stock valuation methods, VanEck’s model does not apply price-to-earnings ratios, discounted cash flow, or other equity analysis tools. Instead, it simulates Bitcoin’s value through different “use cases,” with two key assumptions serving as the main pillars: VanEck’s model assumes that Bitcoin will serve as a “global trade settlement asset,” eventually handling 5% to 10% of global trade settlement volume; another assumption is that some central banks may, to diversify risk and reduce reliance on a single sovereign currency, gradually allocate a very small portion of their foreign exchange reserves to Bitcoin. However, VanEck also admits that these assumptions are still far from current reality. Bitcoin’s role in global trade settlement is almost negligible at present, and central banks have not yet officially designated Bitcoin as a reserve asset. The report points out that reaching this stage still heavily depends on regulatory clarity, infrastructure maturity, and political acceptance—conditions that are not yet fully in place. Although optimistic in the long term, VanEck also warns investors that the road to 2.9 million USD will not be smooth. The research predicts that Bitcoin’s long-term annual volatility will remain high at 40% to 70%, more akin to “frontier markets”—regions with less developed markets—rather than mature financial assets. Nevertheless, even under the most conservative “Bear Case” scenario, VanEck forecasts that Bitcoin can maintain positive growth, citing its increasing “structural importance” within the global financial system. From a macroeconomic perspective, VanEck notes that, historically, Bitcoin’s price has shown a higher correlation with changes in global liquidity than with stocks or commodities. The report suggests that Bitcoin’s correlation with the broad money supply is gradually emerging, while its relationship with the US dollar’s trend is weakening. These signs indicate that the factors driving Bitcoin’s price are gradually becoming more globalized.