Madman Says…
In recent months, the difficulty of the capital markets has been mainly about picking up money in the stock market, while the crypto world is at hellish levels. Participating in the market from a global perspective might be the future choice for most people in the crypto space.
For our A-shares, the trading volume has already reached 3 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.54% of the total market capitalization. Compared to the 3.37% during the 2015 bull market, there is still some distance. Based on this calculation, if the trading volume exceeds 4 trillion yuan, it might be time to consider a top-out on the left side. Additionally, looking at the margin financing balance (leverage), which is currently at 2.6 trillion yuan—an all-time high—accounting for 2.53% of the circulating market value. Compared to the peak of over 4.5% during the 2015 frenzy, it’s still a healthy intermediate stage of growth, with funds still flowing in and sentiment still building.
To summarize, the A-shares bull market is still on the way. After the recent 16 consecutive positive days, a 1-2 day sharp decline could happen at any time. During this period, blindly participating is fine; you can look for dip opportunities in hot sectors like aerospace commercial, brain-machine interfaces, and AI applications to get on board.
The crypto market has been relatively quiet lately. My personal strategy remains waiting for a wave of FUD, ideally catching the new lows of this cycle, then re-entering positions. Recently, the overall market selling pressure has decreased, but there’s no significant inflow either. The good news is that the ETH staking exit queue has basically approached zero by early January (peak queue at 2.6 million ETH), indicating a rapid reduction in selling pressure. The next step depends on when institutional investors will reflow. Therefore, any decline at this point presents a very good entry opportunity with high cost-effectiveness, even seen as a dollar-cost averaging zone.
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