Is the Bitcoin surge a "phantom"? Spot trading volume drops to a 2-year low, liquidity faces a cold snap

Since entering 2026, the cryptocurrency market has been climbing steadily, but behind the prosperity, it may still be “walking on thin ice.” According to the well-known on-chain analysis firm Glassnode, although the market appears lively, liquidity conditions seem to be very weak, with spot trading volume dropping to a new low in over 2 years. Glassnode data shows that despite Bitcoin’s price continuing to rise, the total spot trading volume of Bitcoin and competing coins has fallen to the lowest point since November 2023. This typical “price rises, volume shrinks” divergence usually indicates a decline in market participation and weak buying pressure, with the rally lacking solid support.

The so-called “spot trading volume” measures the actual buying and selling activity of real money within exchanges and is a key indicator of the market’s true heat. In a healthy traditional bull market, rising prices should be accompanied by increased trading volume, indicating continuous inflow of new funds for turnover and profit-taking selling pressure. However, the current situation is “rising with no volume.” This means that less capital is needed to push prices higher, but it also suggests that even a small amount of selling pressure could cause the price to plummet instantly. In fact, since the large-scale liquidation wave in the cryptocurrency market last October, liquidity on centralized exchanges has not fully “recovered,” and order book depth remains below pre-crash levels. Looking back at the “bloodbath” last October, about 19 billion USD of highly leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated within a few hours, which not only cleared over-leveraged speculators but also profoundly changed the market’s liquidity structure, prompting market makers and liquidity providers to withdraw and wait on the sidelines. This has led to a continuous shrinkage of idle liquidity, losing the buffer capacity to absorb large orders. In this environment, any large transaction could trigger more severe slippage and price volatility than before. As of press time, Bitcoin’s price is approximately $93,600, up more than 7.5% since January 1.