Trump's "third impeachment" probability reaches 58%, with this year's midterm elections becoming a key battle.

Market Prediction Kalshi contracts show that the probability of Trump being impeached before 2028 has risen to 58%. If the Democrats take back the House of Representatives, Trump may face a third impeachment.
(Background: Trump signs bill “U.S. withdrawal from 66 international organizations”: including the UNFCCC climate change framework, ESG laws challenged)
(Additional background: Trump family WLFI applies for a U.S. national trust bank license, aiming to independently issue stablecoin USD1 (one-year market cap exceeds 3.3 billion dollars))

With ten months until the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, the prediction market has already sounded the alarm. According to a Kalshi contract quote, the implied probability of Trump being impeached for the third time before 2027 is 17%, and before 2027 it rises to 58%, indicating that the market’s assessment of future political risks is continuing to heat up.

Definition and Process of Presidential Impeachment in the U.S.

However, it should be clarified that although Trump was successfully impeached twice by the House of Representatives in legal procedures, he was acquitted in both Senate trials, so he did not leave office or lose his civil rights due to impeachment.

• “Impeachment Success” Definition: In legal terms, once the House votes to pass an impeachment, it is called “impeached.” Trump is the first U.S. president in history to be impeached twice.

• “Conviction and Removal” Failure: After impeachment passes, the case is sent to the Senate for trial. To convict or remove the president, at least 2/3 (67) of the Senators must vote in favor. In both of Trump’s cases, the votes in favor did not reach this threshold, so he was ultimately acquitted.

58% Implied Probability: What Signal Does It Reveal?

Concerns are not unfounded. Trump himself stated during a closed-door Republican meeting in January:

If we lose the midterm elections, they will impeach me.

The Republican-controlled House currently holds a narrow 218 to 213 majority, and more than 20 Republican members have announced they will not seek re-election. Meanwhile, January polling data shows Trump’s approval rating at only 36%, with 60% disapproval. If the Democrats succeed in retaking the House, the threshold for impeaching Trump will be further lowered.