Target Stock Hits 1-Y Low, How High Will TGT Rally Black Friday?

Target (TGT) stock is struggling on the US stock market, recently hitting 1-year lows on its price chart. Target stock hit a 52-week low of $85.53 on Oct. 10, with only a modest rally since, while other retail stocks are higher. YTD, the stock is down over 30%, which is a tough dip to have leading into a prime sales month.

With Black Friday and the Holiday shopping season just around the corner, TGT investors are hoping that revenue and stock will pick up. There is a host of reasons for Target’s stock price troubles, with most concerning its failures compared to rivals like Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN). Its execution in its stores — from pricing versus Walmart to fresh food in stock — has been down for over a year. That shows in financial results and leaves little confidence in a turnaround.

In addition, Walmart continues to beat Target in every category: store sales growth, online sales growth, profit margin expansion, and guidance. Walmart’s US sales in the second quarter increased 4.6% compared to a 1.9% drop for Target.

Furthermore, Target (TGT) continues to battle through the one-two punch of Trump tariffs and cautious US consumers. About 50% of its cost of goods sold consists of imported items. The US tariffs affected hundreds of businesses and companies in the country, causing price hikes for items that will cost more to import. “We remain wary of what the consumer looks like when we get post back to school and is forced to digest accelerating goods inflation. Target has seen the most episodic shopping due to the nature of its assortment,” said JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers in an investor’s note.

CNN analysts aren’t very bullish on TGT stock in the near term. Out of 40 analysts surveyed by the platform, only 28% suggest buying TGT at press time. Alternatively, 18% suggest selling, and 55% are cautiously holding.