Traders Predict 80% Probability Bitcoin Falls Below $60K in 2026, Kalshi Data Shows

According to Kalshi, the prediction market platform, traders see an 80% probability that Bitcoin will drop below $60,000 in 2026 as of June 4. If this prediction materializes, it would mark a new low for the year, breaking through February's low point. Kalshi data also shows a 52% probability of Bitcoin falling below $50,000, which would be the first time seeing four-digit prices since August 2024.

Meanwhile, trader confidence in Bitcoin returning to $100,000 in the coming months has declined significantly, with the probability now at just 27%, down sharply from nearly 50% in early May.