SpaceX Options Surge on First Day as Market Sees 50% Upside or Downside Risk in 3 Months

According to Susquehanna analysis reported by CNBC, SpaceX (SPCX-US) options trading on their first day on June 16 showed the market pricing roughly 15% probability of a 50% gain within three months, with similar 13% probability of a 50% decline. Call options were among the market's most active, reflecting investor positioning around future stock supply risks following the lock-up period expiration. The stock has surged approximately 50% since its Friday IPO, with market capitalization now exceeding Amazon and approaching Microsoft levels. Strategist Chris Murphy noted the options market reflects stark disagreement over whether SpaceX can justify its valuation, with traders weighing both bullish upside expectations and bearish concerns about supply inflation and valuation sustainability.
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