Polymarket Hormuz Strait Normalization Probability Falls to 25% in Single Week

According to Odaily, Polymarket's prediction market contract for Hormuz Strait normalization by June 30 saw its probability fall to 25% this week, down 25 percentage points. The market has accumulated nearly $12 million in trading volume. The contract resolves "yes" if IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day average of at least 60 vessel transits through the strait at any point before June 30, 2026; otherwise it resolves "no."
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