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Kalshi Traders Predict U.S. Inflation Could Hit 5% in 2026, Up From 3.8% in April

GateNews

Prediction Market Macroeconomics

2026-05-13 02:29:26

According to traders on prediction platform Kalshi, U.S. inflation in April reached 3.8%, the fastest pace since May 2023. Kalshi traders predict a nearly 40% probability that inflation will exceed 5% in 2026, and assign roughly two-thirds odds to inflation surpassing 4.5%. This contrasts sharply with FactSet economists, who forecast inflation will peak this quarter at 3.8% and decline to 2.8% by year-end.

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