Galaxy Research stated that Bitcoin may not have reached its bottom in the current cycle, with only 4 out of 13 historical bottom signals triggered so far. According to the company's report, on-chain data and market indicators point to a base scenario bottom between $40,000 and $46,000, while a more severe capitulation scenario could see prices fall to the $30,000 to $37,000 range. The analysis is based on Bitcoin's 17-year history of four-year cycles, which typically involve a strong upward peak followed by a sharp drop and subsequent recovery.
Galaxy Research Identifies Limited Bottom Signal Activation
According to Galaxy Research's report, only 4 out of 13 bottom signals observed in Bitcoin's past cycles have been triggered in the current downturn. The company analyzed on-chain data and market indicators to assess where Bitcoin's price might stabilize. Galaxy stated that the main scenario points to a bottom between $40,000 and $46,000, while acknowledging that a more severe capitulation could push prices into the $30,000 to $37,000 range.
The report noted that Bitcoin's price movements over its 17-year history have generally followed four-year cycles. These cycles typically involve a strong upward peak, followed by a sharp drop to a low point, and then a subsequent recovery. Galaxy Research stated that despite the halving effect diminishing over time and expectations of a "super cycle," current data suggests that the four-year cycle structure remains valid.
October 2025 Peak Characterized as Calmest in Bitcoin History
Galaxy Research characterized the peak seen in October 2025 as the "calmest" cycle peak in Bitcoin history. The company noted that while previous cycles saw more pronounced signs of extreme euphoria and overvaluation, only a limited number of classic warning indicators came into play during this peak. According to Galaxy, this suggests that the potential bottom in the current cycle may also be shallower compared to past cycles.
The report stated: "We assume that Bitcoin has not yet bottomed out in the current decline, and the data supports this assumption. A calmer peak in October 2025 will likely lead to a shallower bottom. Historical analogies suggest that in the base scenario for the current decline, the bottom could be between $40,000 and $46,000, sometime from today to the fourth quarter of 2026."
Report Documents Historical Cycle Decline Patterns
Galaxy Research documented that declines from peak to trough in previous cycles have become less pronounced. In past cycles, Bitcoin declined from peak to trough by approximately 85%, 84%, and 77%, respectively. In the current cycle, the price has fallen by approximately 51% since its October 2025 peak, which the report considered more moderate compared to historical lows.
The report noted that in past cycles, the bottom formed approximately 12 to 13 months after the peak. Since about eight months have passed since the October 2025 peak, Galaxy stated that the window for bottom formation has not yet fully opened. According to the company, the historical cycle calendar suggests that a potential bear market bottom may form more likely towards the end of 2026.
Galaxy's assessment highlighted that Bitcoin's realized price, meaning the average cost basis for investors, is significantly higher in this cycle compared to previous periods. According to the report, Bitcoin's cost basis is approximately $53,000. The company noted that this means even if a drop as sharp as in past cycles occurs, the bottom in dollar terms could be even higher.
Galaxy Research Outlines Four Price Bottom Scenarios
Galaxy Research listed four distinct scenarios for Bitcoin's potential bottom:
Base scenario: The report suggested that if Bitcoin's MVRV ratio falls to the 0.75-0.86 range, the bottom could be approximately between $40,000 and $46,000.
Hard capitulation scenario: The report suggested that in an environment similar to the deep selling pressure seen in 2018 and 2022, BTC could fall to the $30,000 to $37,000 range.
Shallower bearish scenario: The report noted that if strong buying keeps the price near cost basis, Bitcoin could form a base between $51,000 and $54,000.
Four-year average touch scenario: The report noted that Bitcoin touching its four-year average of around $62,000 would represent only a 51% decline in the current downturn.
Cost Basis Analysis Shows Higher Support Levels
Galaxy Research argued that the "77% to 85% drop from the peak" rule used in past cycles might be misleading for this cycle. According to the company, since the October 2025 peak has historically occurred closer to cost basis, directly applying percentage drops from past cycles to today could lead to overly pessimistic results. While this calculation implies a bottom for Bitcoin in the $19,000 to $29,000 range, Galaxy stated that this doesn't fully reflect the current cycle dynamics.
Galaxy Research added that the cost basis is not a fixed ground. The report stated that if investors sell at a loss during a strong sell-off, the actual price could be pulled down, and therefore the theoretical base could also fall along with the price. The company noted that the current price is only about 14 percent above the cost basis, and this difference could quickly close in a potential panic sell-off.
According to Galaxy, the amplitude of Bitcoin cycles is gradually shrinking. The company stated that the sharper rises and falls of previous cycles are being replaced by calmer peaks and shallower pullbacks. However, Galaxy argued that this doesn't mean Bitcoin will never bottom out, only that the potential bottom might occur in a higher region than in past cycles.
FAQ
What price range does Galaxy Research suggest for Bitcoin's bottom in the base scenario?
Galaxy Research stated that in the base scenario, Bitcoin's bottom could be between $40,000 and $46,000. The company based this assessment on historical analogies and suggested this bottom could form sometime from the present to the fourth quarter of 2026. This scenario assumes Bitcoin's MVRV ratio falls to the 0.75-0.86 range.
How many historical bottom signals have been triggered in Bitcoin's current cycle?
According to Galaxy Research's report, only 4 out of 13 bottom signals seen in Bitcoin's past cycles have been triggered so far. The company stated that this limited signal activation, combined with on-chain data and market indicators, suggests Bitcoin may not have reached its bottom yet in the current downturn.
What did Galaxy Research say about the October 2025 Bitcoin peak?
Galaxy Research characterized the peak seen in October 2025 as the "calmest" cycle peak in Bitcoin history. The company noted that while previous cycles saw more pronounced signs of extreme euphoria and overvaluation, only a limited number of classic warning indicators came into play during this peak. Galaxy stated that approximately eight months have passed since this peak, and the price has fallen by approximately 51% since then.
