André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, stated at the BTC Prague event that Bitcoin risks a further 20% drop from current levels, with a worst-case scenario price target of $48,000. The analyst cited significant technical support zones below Bitcoin's spot price, including the 200-week moving average around $61,000, an actual cost level of $56,000, and a long-term investor average cost around $48,000. Dragosch explained that Bitwise's experimental bottom probability model began to rise last week, though on-chain indicators have not yet reached the extreme levels seen in past cycle lows. Bitcoin fell approximately 28% from a peak of around $82,000 in May, dropping below $60,000 before recently recovering above $63,000.
Dragosch Identifies Three Technical Support Levels for Bitcoin
Dragosch outlined three technical support zones during his remarks at the BTC Prague event. The first major support stands at the 200-week moving average, around $61,000. Below that level, the analyst identified an actual cost level of $56,000. Dragosch described the average cost for long-term investors, around $48,000, as the "maximum pain scenario."
The analyst noted that Bitwise's experimental bottom probability model began to rise last week. However, he added that on-chain indicators have not yet reached the extreme levels observed in past cycle lows, suggesting the market may be approaching a bottom but has not yet given a definitive reversal signal.
Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, expressed similar views. Galaxy Digital's baseline scenario predicts a bottom for Bitcoin between $40,000 and $46,000.
Bitwise Attributes Selling Pressure to $2 Billion Weekly ETP Outflows
Dragosch stated that the primary reason for the recent selling pressure was the weekly outflow of approximately $2 billion worth of exchange-traded products (ETPs). He explained that these outflows had the equivalent of selling around 50,000 BTC into the market in a short period.
In contrast, Dragosch noted that the 32 BTC sale by Strategy was symbolic and that there was no significant slowdown in institutional Bitcoin purchases.
Altcoin Market Shows No Season Signal Pending Clarity Act
Dragosch noted that Bitwise's Altcoin Excitement Index is currently not signaling any altcoin season. According to the analyst, the passage of the Clarity Act in the US, which aims to regulate the structure of the crypto market, is critical for a strong upward trend in altcoins.
FAQ
What price levels did André Dragosch identify as Bitcoin support zones?
Dragosch identified three technical support zones: the 200-week moving average around $61,000, an actual cost level of $56,000, and a long-term investor average cost around $48,000, which he described as the "maximum pain scenario."
Why did Dragosch attribute recent Bitcoin selling pressure to ETP outflows?
Dragosch stated that weekly outflows of approximately $2 billion worth of exchange-traded products had the equivalent effect of selling around 50,000 BTC into the market in a short period, representing the primary source of recent selling pressure.
What does Bitwise's Altcoin Excitement Index currently indicate?
Dragosch noted that Bitwise's Altcoin Excitement Index is currently not signaling any altcoin season, and stated that passage of the Clarity Act in the US is critical for a strong upward trend in altcoins.
