Economist Nouriel Roubini, known as the “Doctore of Doom,” said in a Bloomberg Television interview on July 18 that within the next 20 to 25 years, as AI and robotics technology advances, large portions of the population could be replaced by machines. A trust fund that the U.S. uses to pay retirement benefits is expected to run out around 2032. Roubini said that a universal basic income (UBI) will ultimately be unavoidable.
Roubini: Raising the retirement age cannot address the AI employment shock
Asked during a Bloomberg Television interview about solutions to problems in the U.S. Social Security system, Roubini said the trust funds currently used to pay retirement benefits are expected to run out around 2032, and that the commonly proposed solution—raising the retirement age—is, in his view, not enough to deal with the AI shock.
The reason is this: within the next 20 to 25 years, AI and robotics technology could replace human labor on a large scale. At that point, the sharp reduction in the working population would make the logic of “having people work longer” fail. He believes the real solution must shift to systemic wealth-redistribution mechanisms.
Roubini’s global economic growth forecast: 6% by 2040 driven by AI
Roubini predicts that the AI revolution will become one of the most important technological changes in human history. In the future, AI may further develop into “artificial general intelligence” (AGI), reaching—or even surpassing—human cognitive capability. His numerical forecasts for global economic growth are as follows:
Current (end of this century): Global economic growth rate is about 2% to 4%
2040: Could rise to 6%
2050: Could reach 10%
Roubini said that by then, governments can tax the biggest beneficiaries of the AI era and redistribute wealth to other groups in society. He emphasized that this forecast is an optimistic assessment because it is based on the premise of rapid growth enabled by machines taking on a large share of labor.
Two AI wealth-distribution models: UBI and the path of government stakes in tech companies
In the interview, Roubini proposed two possible models for distributing AI wealth. One is to distribute after economic growth—such as through a universal basic income—to ensure everyone is supported regardless of whether they are employed. The other is to share before growth—allowing society to benefit directly in the process by which AI industry profits are generated—such as having the government hold a stake in parts of major tech companies, or letting the public hold a certain percentage of shares in AI companies.
Regarding the latter, Roubini said that the Financial Times previously reported that OpenAI discussed offering the public about 5% of the company’s equity. He said that if this model were promoted, other AI companies might adopt similar approaches, but it is currently unclear whether OpenAI’s U.S. competitors would be willing to accept it.
Altman and Musk’s similar views: government funding plans and a vision where work becomes optional
Roubini’s views overlap with statements made by some tech leaders. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman previously proposed that the government might provide the public with fixed amounts of funding support, though he later changed his position. Earlier this year, UK officials responsible for investment affairs said the government is assessing whether to introduce a universal basic income to help workers in industries that may be disrupted by AI technology.
Elon Musk, meanwhile, believes that within less than 20 years, AI and robotics technology could develop to a stage where human work is no longer a necessity for survival, but rather an individual choice.
FAQ
When did Roubini accept a Bloomberg interview and share the above views?
According to reports, Roubini accepted a Bloomberg Television interview on about July 18, 2026 (Friday). When asked how to address issues in the U.S. Social Security system, he offered the above judgments about AI replacing jobs, universal basic income, and economic growth.
What specific GDP growth forecasts does Roubini have for the world?
In the Bloomberg interview, Roubini predicted that the global economic growth rate could rise from the current 2% to 4% to 6% by 2040, and reach 10% by 2050. He based this on the assumption that AI and robots would replace labor on a large scale and unlock enormous production potential.
How much equity percentage has OpenAI discussed offering to the public?
Based on the Financial Times report cited by Roubini in the interview, OpenAI had discussed offering the public about 5% of the company’s equity, so that society can share the growth windfall brought by artificial intelligence. The current status of any specific plan depends on OpenAI’s official announcements.
