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Bitcoin $100K Probability Drops to 47% on Kalshi, Down From 94% in January

GateNews

Prediction Market

2026-05-28 21:44:14

BTC-1.6%

POLYMARKET20.73%

According to Kalshi and Polymarket data as of mid-May 2026, Bitcoin has only a 47% implied probability of surpassing $100,000 at any point in 2026, down sharply from 94% in January. Polymarket traders assign just 11% odds to Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by December 2026, with over $18 million in trading volume on that contract. The most favored Polymarket outcome is Bitcoin remaining above $90,000 in 2026, priced at 68% probability. Approximately 44% of prediction-market participants believe Bitcoin could dip to or below $55,000 before year-end, reflecting significant downside concern. Total trading volume across major prediction markets for Bitcoin price targets has exceeded $80 million in 2026.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third-party sources and is for reference only. It does not represent the views or opinions of Gate and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Virtual asset trading involves high risk. Please do not rely solely on the information on this page when making decisions. For details, see the Disclaimer.

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